2007 NFL Prop Bets & Futures

With the playing of the Hall of Fame game last night, it's officially time to place sports wagers. I had the Steelers (-3 @ -110) in the game last night based on the assumption that Sean Payton could not care less about winning a preseason game. As soon as I heard that Tyler Palko and Jason Fife would be the quarterbacks in the 2nd half for the Saints, I knew that New Orleans was sunk.

With that said, there are a few prop bets for the 2007 season that I liked. Here they are with the amount of the bet in parenthesis:

1. Detroit Lions Over 6 wins (-140) (0.5 Units)
1. If they can win 4 of these 7 games @Oakland, Minnesota (2), Tampa Bay, Green Bay (2) & Kansas City, then they would only need to win 3 of their remaining 9 games @Philadelphia, Chicago (2), @Washington, Denver, @Arizona, New York Giants, Dallas and @San Diego.
2. I think a push on this bet is fairly likely and accounts for the heavy juice that must be laid. But, Detroit has to push or cover 6 wins only 58.33% of the time for the bet to break even. If the Lions defense has improved at all over the offseason, then the offense should have no trouble carving out 6 wins from somewhere
2. San Francisco 49ers Over 8 wins (+110) (0.5 Units)
1. The 49ers won 7 games last season, including major victories on the road at Denver and Seattle. Their offseason included major improvements to a shaky defense and the loss of Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner.
2. If they can win the following games, Arizona, @Atlanta, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and @Cleveland, then they would only need to win 3 out of the remaining 11 games to push this bet. Those games are St Louis (2), Seattle (2), @Arizona, @Pittsburgh, Baltimore, @New York Giants, New Orleans , @Carolina, and Cincinnati. I think Mike Nolan can dig up three wins somewhere with the talent he added in the offseason.
3. I think taking a decent team and getting to push on a .500 record is a good bet, but the better than even money price makes it that much better.
3. Cincinnati Bengals Make the Playoffs (+120) (0.5 Units)
1. The Bengals have to be considered one of the best six teams in the AFC. The better than even money price almost certainly reflects their self-destruction at the end of last season when they lost their last three games when winning any one of them would have gotten them into the postseason. This included a painful missed extra
   point that would have forced overtime on the road against Denver.
2. I believe the Bengals will win 9 games or more this year, but the Bengals season win total prop is Over 9 wins (-130). Since 9 wins is good enough to get you into the playoffs the vast majority of the time, this ends up being basically the same bet.
   Whatever difference in expected value I’m giving up by the Bengals winning 9 games and not getting into the postseason (where I would have pushed on the total win bet) cannot be nearly enough to offset the $0.50 on the dollar price break I’m getting.
4. TD Passes: Jay Cutler (-2.5 @ -110) vs Chad Pennington (1 Unit)
1. Chad Pennington had 17 TD passes in a full season last year while Jay Cutler had 9 TD passes in what amounted to one-third of a season.
2. I’m pretty sure Cutler will only be getting better while Pennington’s offense finally added a legitimate first string running back in Thomas Jones. Jones’ addition to the offense almost certainly has to reduce the number of red zone opportunities pennington will have to pass.
3. The combination of projection of Cutler’s statistics over a full season vs Pennington is more than enough to make this a bet.