NFL Preseason - Week 4

Went 0-2 last weekend on the Pats and Panthers. I feel more confident this week as the third preseason game is typically when the team's starters will play all the way into the 3rd quarter. These games, therefore, are typically the closest approximation of a regular season game you're going to get. This is also why you're going to see several 1st half bets this week as you can generally have a good grasp on what the starters will do against other starters

1. 1st Half: New Orleans (+0.5 @ -120) @ Kansas City - Thursday night (0.5 Units)

I missed out on this line when it first came out at Saints +1.5 in the first half at -110. I don't quite understand how the saints starters rate to get any points at all against the Chiefs starters. Perhaps the line is inflated because everyone thinks Larry Johnson is going to play tonight (he isn't, by the way). At any rate, I'll take Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush and a half point over Brodie Croyle and company any day of the week.

2. 1st Half: Dallas (-1.5 @ -110) @ Houston (0.5 Units)

Regardless of how good Matt Schaub and Ahman Green have looked, Dallas is still by far the better team. I'm looking for the pokes to have a good two quarters worth of work against a mediocre at best Texans team. Another aspect in Dallas' favor is that they are 2-0 and have covered this number in the first half in both games against far better opponents. Evidently Wade Phillips likes to win in the preseason. I guess his difficulty winning in the regular season makes him take his wins where he can get them.

3. 1st Half: San Diego (-0.5 @ -125) @ Arizona (0.5 Units)

Once again, the far superior team to win the first half. This isn't any kind of super secret formula here.

4. Detroit @ Indianapolis - Total Over 40.5 (-110) (0.5 Units)

Both of these teams have played over this number in both of their games this year. So, I suspect that there won't be much defense being played along with two pretty good offenses. I'm betting the game total just to give scrub defenses the opportunity to give up some garbage scores late in the game. I'm also leaning towards Indy -3.5 in the first half, but the chance that this is a shootout between the two first team offenses makes me a little skittish about laying the three and a hook.