The games that matter are finally here, starting with LSU @ Mississippi State on Thursday night and a full lineup of games on Saturday during the day. Here are the games I’ll be watching:
1. LSU (-16 @ -110) @ Mississippi State – 1 Unit
Last year, the Tigers did not cover at home as 34 point favorites (48-17) and open on the road laying only 16 points. If I’m reading this correctly, then Jamarcus Russell, Dwayne Bowe, Buster Davis and Tiger Stadium are worth 18 points? Matt Flynn, Early Doucet and Keilan Williams are more than adequate replacements and the LSU defense might actually be better this year despite losing LaRon Landry from the secondary. For what it’s worth, Mississippi State is not known for its fast starts under Sly Croom, getting shutout in its first two games last season against South Carolina (16-0) and Auburn (34-0). They are not a good team and they are playing the #2 team in the country on national television in a spot where LSU is going to want to impress the country.
Despite his shortcomings as a tactical coach, nobody destroys bad teams more thoroughly than LSU under Les Miles. Mississippi State is a bad team, so look out.
2. Arkansas State @ Texas (-37 @ -110) – 1 Unit
Lay the points on Mack Brown and Texas, the outfit that used to destroy bad teams better than anyone else. They still do it and I believe will thoroughly whip the Indians. I don’t normally like laying this big of a number on a favorite, but Mack Brown is on record as saying that he would like to get his backup quarterback as much work in the early games as possible so he doesn’t end up like the end of last season when Colt McCoy’s injury sent Texas’ year down the tubes. Look for Brown to still be running plays with his backup QB late in the game and piling on points.
3. Missouri (-5.5 @ -110) @ Illinois – 1 Unit
Missouri returns a senior QB who threw for 3500 yds and 28 TDs last season. Illinois is everyone’s favorite up-and-coming team with no shortage of young talent. Illinois’ problem, though, is a lack of experience…..That and Ron Zook calling the shots. I expect the Illini to put up their share of points in this game, but not enough to keep up with a veteran Tiger team. The line has been moving down all week and currently sits at Mizzou -4. I’m going to double my action on the game if I can get Mizzou -3.5 any time between now and Saturday.
4. Navy (-21 @ -110) @ Temple – 1 Unit
Navy is a team that took BC to the wire in their bowl game last season. Temple is just a godawful excuse of a Division I football team. Navy won last year 42-6 and the year before that 38-17 and there’s no reason to think Temple has any sort of home field advantage that will narrow those margins. Pretty easy bet
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