A Quick Method To Determine If I Have Action on a Game

Simply check if there are an inordinate number of special teams or defensive touchdowns.  I remain convinced that there is no way you can account for these touchdowns when you handicap a game, but they are giving me heartburn they happen with such regularity.  I took a couple of bad beats in college football (Andre Woodson, I'm looking at you) at the hands of these renegade scores, but they seem to break both ways in the NFL.  Of course, I know that if an event is truly random that the occurrences that don't go my way will eventually be evened out by good fortune, much like taking bad beats in poker.  But, just like in poker, it sure does suck when you catch a string of bad luck in a row.

Anyway, here was my NFL action for the weekend and the corresponding touchdowns not scored by offensive players.

1. Arizona (-3 @ -120) @ St. Louis - 2.4 Units

The Cardinals had 2 defensive touchdowns to give me a break, but then gave up a 30-yard touchdown with 0:13 left in the game to drop the game to a push.  All things considered, I'll take it

2. Cleveland @ New England - Total Over 48 (-110) - 1.1 Units

A late defensive touchdown by New England pushed the game over the number.

3. Seattle (+6 @ -115) @ Pittsburgh - 1.15 Units

Amazingly enough, Pittsburgh outright beat the Seahawks, with all three touchdowns coming on offense

4. Miami @ Houston (-5.5 @ -110)

Another game where I missed

5. 3 Team Teaser - Jacksonville/Kansas City Under 43, Indianapolis (-2.5), Dallas (-3) - (+150) 1 Unit

I won the first two legs of the teaser and then Buffalo gets THREE return touchdowns (2 INT, 1 Kickoff). 

College Football - Week 6

I'm just going to post my plays today as I have to get out of the house early to get on campus for tailgating.

1. Oklahoma (-9.5 @ -110) @ Texas - 1.1 Units

2. Alabama-Birmingham (+19 @ -110) @ Mississippi State - 1.1 Units

3. Florida @ LSU (-6.5 @ -120) - 1.2 Units

4. Miami (OH) @ Kent State (-9 @ -110) - 1.1 Units

5. Fresno State @ Nevada (-3 @ -115) - 1.15 Units

6. Arkansas State (-2.5 @ -110) @ UL-Monroe - 1.1 Units

7. Arkansas State @ UL-Monroe - Total Under 57 (-110) - 1.1 Units

8. North Texas @ UL-Lafayette - Total Under 66.5 (-110) - 1.1 Units

9. Troy (-19 @ -110) @ Florida International - 1.1 Units

10. Miami (FL) (-6.5 @ -115) @ North Carolina - 1.15 Units

College Football - Week 6 (Thursday Night Action)

Kentucky (+3.5 @ -110) @ South Carolina

I made this bet on Sunday afternoon, thinking this line would go down to USC -3 as the week wore on.  Instead, it sat at 3.5 all week and then, all of a sudden this afternoon, it has shot up to USC -5.  I understand Kentucky is still thought of as an SEC doormat, but I my numbers have UK winning this game by 7 points, so there is plenty of value to be had here.  Even if my handicapping is not accurate, I can't believe that I'm wrong by 12 points, so even if I'm off by 6-7 points, I'm still getting pretty good value by getting points in what I think should be a pick'em.

Since the number has gone up, I'm waiting to double up with another bet on the wildcats.  I'm just going to wait until right before kickoff to see how high the number will go.  The books have taken so much action today that it will never get back down to 4 points in the next 45 minutes and just may get up to 6 if the Gamecock money keeps coming in.

Kentucky 31 South Carolina 24

College Football - Week 6 (Wednesday Night Action)

Rice @ Southern Mississippi - Total Under 54 (-110) - 1.1 Units

I'm actually posting this as Rice is kneeling on the ball to run out the clock.  This was just another game that I had handicapped correctly but the ball didn't bounce my way.  I scored this game as a 30-17 USM victory, so either taking Rice +20.5 or the total Under 54 had good value.  My score was probably a bit high as USM was starting its third-string quarterback and Rice is one of the worst teams in Division I-A, coming in with an 0-4 record that included a loss at home to Division I-AA Nicholls State.  On top of all this, the 3rd string freshman QB was injured very early in the game and USM was forced to play their injured second string QB.

Unfortunately, the two teams had 9 turnovers between them, leading to Rice scoring drives of 10 yards (1:24), 12 yards (1:15), 26 yards (1:25) and a 7 yard drive that ended in a field goal.  Because of turnovers, USM allowed 31 points to a Rice offense which only managed to gain 239 yards (only 68 yards passing).

Amazingly, the under was relatively safe as Rice led 31-7 with 12 minutes left in the game and USM having less than 200 total yards.  Of course, USM scored two touchdowns (the second on fourth-and-goal) and two 2-point conversions to make the score 31-23 and put the total right on the number.  They then scored one more time for good measure before Rice finally decided to play defense and stopped the two-point conversion to preserve the win.

I'll just keep plugging along until these breaks turn around for me.

College Football - Week 6 (Tuesday Action)

Marshall @ Memphis (-2.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Units

This is one of the simpler bets you can make.  Memphis, even though they are 1-3, is the better team and they are playing at home.  Memphis has played Ole Miss tough at home in addition to blowing a huge lead last week against a good Arkansas State team in Jonesboro, AR.  Marshall is giving up a huge number of yards per game (184.5 rushing & 263 passing) and, while a lot of this can be attributed to playing a tough early schedule (WVU, Miami & Cincinnati) they managed to give up 562 total yards at home to Division I-AA New Hampshire in a home loss two weeks ago.

Memphis has neither an overpowering offense nor defense, but they are certainly good enough to win a home game against a poor Marshall defense more often than not.

Memphis 27 Marshall 16

Efficient Markets Update

In the posted plays of the week, Danny cleaned my clock because he took the generous serving of points in the college football games.  And by cleaned my clock, I mean didn't lose nearly as much as I did.  So, in the games where I thought the market was most inefficient, i.e. the games where I made a bet, "throwing darts" broke even (only lost the juice if these were real bets) and the actual analysis went 2-7. 

To be complete, however, here is the record for each person over the full college and NFL schedule from this weekend.  I can't believe Danny's ATS record in college football!

Name	CFB ATS	CFB O/U	P/L	NFL ATS	NFL O/U	P/L
Justin	27-25-1	23-29-1	(9.4)	6-7-1	8-5-1	0.8
Danny	36-15-1	26-23-2	20.2	7-7	7-6-1	(0.3)

One thing that can be gleaned from this data is the clear effect of laying the traditional -110 on every game you bet.  Danny won 25 more bets than he lost over the course of the weekend and ended up "only" 19.9 units ahead.  To put this in graphical terms, the table below shows the profit Danny made laying -110 on each game and what his profit would have been had he been required to lay only -105 or gotten even money.

Price	Units Risked	Units Won	Profit	ROI
-110	144.10	164.00	19.90	13.81%
-105	137.55	160.00	22.45	16.32%
+100	131.00	156.00	25.00	19.08%

I'm not sure if Danny will be able to participate for the next two weeks, but if he can, we'll continue our experiment as long as he is willing to keep making picks.

Season to Date Record (2007.10.02)

This weekend was by far the roughest of the year, with me dropping 5.6 units on college football.  I booked a small win on the NFL to ease the blow somewhat, but my three week losing streak has seen me drop 12.33 units on both college and the NFL. 

After analyzing what is going on, I'm certainly in a bit of a slump as far as handicapping the games and deserve to have lost over the recent games.  But, I'm also catching more than my share of bad luck along the way.  Notre Dame's kicker missed two extra points on Saturday to keep the final total at 52 when I had over 53.5.  There are at least four other games over the last few weeks where I have lost because of similar shenanigans.

Besides that, though, "Upset Saturday" in college football finally beat into my head what I had suspected over the past two weeks: I have been backing too many large favorites, especially now that conference play has started.  With all of the Top 25 upsets on saturday, I obviously took a bath.  I'm going to try to avoid laying too many points in the future and not be afraid to take the points when I feel a team can keep it close or even win outright.

But, it is all part of the process.  Betting sports is just like gambling on any other endeavor, if you have an edge, you will realize that gain if you exercise your advantage over a sufficient number of trials.  These slumps only serve to highlight the utility of having a deep bankroll so you can survive the downswings and continue betting at the same level long enough to get to the "long run".

That said, here is the carnage as it currently stands.

2007 NFL Regular Season

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	7-7-1	17.850	17.900	0.050	0.28%
Totals	4-4	9.850	8.119	(1.731)	(17.57%)
Teasers	1-0	1.000	2.800	1.800	180.00%
Parlays	0-0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00%
Props	3-2-1	6.600	7.400	0.800	12.12%
Total:	15-13-2	35.300	36.219	0.919	2.60%

2007 College Football

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	13-20	37.95	29.50	(8.45)	(22.27)%
Totals	3-2	5.15	5.25	0.10	1.94%
Teasers	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Parlays	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Total:	16-22	43.10	34.75	(8.35)	(19.37)%

2007 NFL Preseason

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	4-6	5.975	6.000	0.025	0.42%
Totals	1-0	0.550	1.050	0.500	90.91%
Teasers	0-0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00%
Parlays	1-0	0.500	1.785	1.285	257.00%
Total:	6-6	7.025	8.835	1.810	25.77%

Summary

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
NFL	15-13-2	35.300	36.219	0.919	2.60%
College	16-22	43.100	34.750	(8.35)	(19.37)%
Preseason	6-6	7.025	8.835	1.810	25.77%
Total:	31-35-2	85.425	79.804	(5.621)	(6.58)%