Thursday, October 4, 2007

College Football - Week 6 (Thursday Night Action)

Kentucky (+3.5 @ -110) @ South Carolina

I made this bet on Sunday afternoon, thinking this line would go down to USC -3 as the week wore on.  Instead, it sat at 3.5 all week and then, all of a sudden this afternoon, it has shot up to USC -5.  I understand Kentucky is still thought of as an SEC doormat, but I my numbers have UK winning this game by 7 points, so there is plenty of value to be had here.  Even if my handicapping is not accurate, I can't believe that I'm wrong by 12 points, so even if I'm off by 6-7 points, I'm still getting pretty good value by getting points in what I think should be a pick'em.

Since the number has gone up, I'm waiting to double up with another bet on the wildcats.  I'm just going to wait until right before kickoff to see how high the number will go.  The books have taken so much action today that it will never get back down to 4 points in the next 45 minutes and just may get up to 6 if the Gamecock money keeps coming in.

Kentucky 31 South Carolina 24

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