Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Efficient Markets Update

In the posted plays of the week, Danny cleaned my clock because he took the generous serving of points in the college football games.  And by cleaned my clock, I mean didn't lose nearly as much as I did.  So, in the games where I thought the market was most inefficient, i.e. the games where I made a bet, "throwing darts" broke even (only lost the juice if these were real bets) and the actual analysis went 2-7. 

To be complete, however, here is the record for each person over the full college and NFL schedule from this weekend.  I can't believe Danny's ATS record in college football!

Name

CFB ATS

CFB O/U

P/L

NFL ATS

NFL O/U

P/L

Justin

27-25-1

23-29-1

(9.4)

6-7-1

8-5-1

0.8

Danny

36-15-1

26-23-2

20.2

7-7

7-6-1

(0.3)

One thing that can be gleaned from this data is the clear effect of laying the traditional -110 on every game you bet.  Danny won 25 more bets than he lost over the course of the weekend and ended up "only" 19.9 units ahead.  To put this in graphical terms, the table below shows the profit Danny made laying -110 on each game and what his profit would have been had he been required to lay only -105 or gotten even money.

Price

Units Risked

Units Won

Profit

ROI

-110

144.10

164.00

19.90

13.81%

-105

137.55

160.00

22.45

16.32%

+100

131.00

156.00

25.00

19.08%

I'm not sure if Danny will be able to participate for the next two weeks, but if he can, we'll continue our experiment as long as he is willing to keep making picks.

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