It IS possible to read hands in Limit Hold'Em

I don't think anyone would argue that Limit Hold'Em is a profitable game when playing in a casino. A large part of the reason this is true is because many of the players call bets with hands that can't possibly be good as well as draw with hands that are such statistical longshots that they won't win enough money when their draw hits to overcome how much money they lose the many times it does not. With most everyone at the table playing this way, simply choosing good starting hands and raising when you get them is going to make you a winner in the long run.

However, because everyone's range of hands is so wide, it becomes very difficult to deduce what another player holds. When they call a flop bet, they could have bottom pair, a gutshot straight draw, two pair, a set or even just unpaired overcards that they hope will win if they hit on the turn. It is much more useful to simply give the field a certain hand rather than try to pinpoint each player. For instance, I was playing $3/$6 limit at Harrah's yesterday and limped up front with the Ad4d. It was such a game that there was likely to be no raise before the flop. And even if there was, it was unlikely to thin the field any. On this particular hand, though, a pretty loose old man who had been raising with any suited Ace raised two seats behind me and got four callers. Of course, I called the raise as did the guy between me and the old man.

I knew I was in trouble since he's highly likely to have an Ace with a better kicker but I'm getting over 10:1 to try to outflop him, which I did when the flop came Ac 8h 4h. With the large pot, it was far more important to protect my hand than to try to get extra bets out of anyone. Thinking that the old man has likely paired his Ace, I led into the field with a bet and the old man did not disappoint and raised it to $6. The player on the button called the $6 cold and I chose to simply call the raise. I had to put the third player on a flush draw since we know where three of the four aces are and there were no other draws on the board save for the gutshot straight draw. By flat calling, I thought I could get in a check-raise on the turn should a third heart not fall and make the third player pay $12 to draw. This is a somewhat important concept in that I've turned what is considered the worst position at a hold'em table in which I have to act first on every round and, by reading the old man's hand, have turned it into a situation where I'm acting last and can get two double bets out of both of them. Also, if the third heart does fall, I can check and see if the third player wakes up and also have a good idea of the price I'll be receiving to draw to a full house.

Anyway, the turn came the 2s and I checked, as planned. The old man bet, the third player called and I check-raised, which was unsurprisingly called in both places. The river was the terrible 8s, completely ruining any hand that I had. I just gave up and checked knowing that the old man would call with his now winning hand. The hand checked around and the old man took down the pot with As9s, while the third player showed the 10c10d.

The moral of the story is I severely misread the third player's hand because who would have ever thought that he would take all that heat with a pair of tens. In addition, it became clear to me that the old man does not understand the concept of a "kicker". I know nobody would ever fold top pair to a turn check-raise, but he had to have realized his hand was not good when he has all but told the table he has at least a pair of aces and I'm telling him that I can beat a pair of aces. Evidently the other player didn't hear this message because he obviously thought his tens were good. Whatever logic these players were using to play their hands usually confounds someone trying to figure out what they have.

BUT! I said that sometimes it IS possible to read hands in limit hold'em. There was one player at the table, a kid that looked to be in his mid-twenties, that I had previously pegged as a decent player. And by decent player, I mean not completely and utterly brain-dead. During one of his first hands at the table, he bet the turn and folded to a raise, making a comment that he had "Ace-medium". By folding and saying this, he could not have stood out any more starkly if he were playing without clothes on. Nobody says "Ace-medium" to describe their hand unless they are trying to think about the game logically. Furthermore, for all of the hours I've played poker in the casino, this is probably the third or fourth player I've encountered who can successfully bet and then fold to a raise on the same betting round. I do it when appropriate, but it is truly surprising when I see someone else do it. After seeing and hearing all of this, I made a mental note that I he can probably be moved off of his hand if you can convince him his hand is no good.

So, about 30 minutes later, I get dealt the AsJc in early position and bring it in with a raise. I get the customary four callers and then the player I just described makes it three bets from the big blind. Since he is a decent player, I figure he is three-better from out of position with AA,KK,QQ and AK. I'm not sure whether he would do it with JJ or TT, as a lot of good players will do. I call once again, as does everyone else. We take the flop five handed for three bets ($45) and it comes down Ah 8s 3s. The pre-flop three-bettor checks with a disgusted look on his face, all but telling me that he has a pocket pair and not AK. The guy in front of me checks and I of course bet. The two players behind me fold while the two players in front of me call. The turn comes the 5s, completing the flush draw. I'm still trying to decide whether I will bet or check when the kid wakes up and leads with a bet himself, folding the player between us. Since the player most likely to hold a flush (the in-between player) has folded, and I know what the kid has, I make a fairly easy raise. I am rooting for him to call, hoping that he has the spade of whatever pair he has and will draw at it not realizing that he is drawing dead because I have the As. But, that was all the money I would get out of him as he folded and flashed the 10h10s.

You'll hear people talk about "gaining deception" on a hand by playing it in a non-standard way. Mostly, this applies to people limping in or just calling before the flop when they have pocket aces, but it just as easily means three-betting before the flop with 76 suited. The vast majority of the time, however, people will play the same hand the same way, regardless of the circumstances. By three-betting before the flop, the kid told me with reasonable certainty that he had a big pocket pair or AK. I was then able to apply that knowledge to get the maximum number of bets out of him without fearing his hand. Conversely, I could just have easily had KJ or some other hand in this spot and used the same thought process to move the kid off of his hand. It's not that the kid did anything wrong in the hand, it's that I realized he was a good player before he realized I was.

You certainly don't come across good players very often in those casino hold'em games, but, when you do, it IS possible to read their hands.

Playing Poker at the Opposite Ends of the Spectrum

I went down to the Belle of Baton Rouge Casino on Saturday night to drink beer, watch the Saints preseason game and play a little $4/$8 Limit Hold'Em. Just like every other casino that spreads limit holdem, these games are unbelievably good with anywhere from 4-7 players seeing the flop on average. Simply starting with better cards will give you enough of an edge to beat this game. I ended up with a modest 5 bet win ($42), but there are two hands that stand out in the session highlighting my ability to adjust my plan for a hand on the fly and also my striking IN-ability to do the same just a little while later.

For a little background, this is your typical low-limit casino hold'em game with a couple of young people, a couple of old people and then random stereotypes inbetween. The two main opponents here are the tight, old lady (TOL) and the crazy asian gambler (CAG).

The tight old lady plays as predictably as anyone in the world. She raises with her big pairs and big cards and limps with small pairs and small cards. She also may not raise before the flop with a hand like AQ when she is in one of the blinds because she does not want to lose money with it if she doesn't pair one of her cards. She just waits to see what the flop brings. When she does have top pair or something good on the flop, she plays very straightforward and bets. She does not slowplay.

The crazy asian gambler is the exact opposite. He plays nearly 90% of his hands and usually plays them to the river. If you check to him on any street, he will bet with any hand. He will generally release his hand only when it is painfully clear that he is beaten.

So, first for the good play. I'm in the $4 big blind with T T. 6 players limp in, including tight old lady on the button and crazy asian gambler one seat to her right. With $28 (7 small bets) in the pot, the flop comes K 9 5 and the small blind checks.

With a flush draw and two gutshot straight draws, I realize that betting here will accomplish absolutely nothing since nobody in this game is going to fold a King a flush draw or one of the gutshots for one bet. Even more importantly, they wouldn't really be incorrect to call since they would be getting 8:1 at the very least and could anticipate making up their odds shortfall on the turn and river if they made their hand. So, I decide to check and see what happens, mindful that there is a very significant chance that I have the best hand but may not be able to protect it. If it is bet in early position, then I fully intend to fold since it will simply be too easy for me to playing with only two outs.

However, it ends up being checked all the way around to CAG, who predictably puts out a $4 bet. TOL and the small blind both fold and the situation has changed considerably. I'm an overwhelming favorite to have a hand better than CAG, whose bet simply means that he got dealt two cards and still has them. Whereas people could most likely call one bet profitably, only flush draws and kings (to which i'm already losing) are correct to call my check-raise. The great thing about this game, though is that most of the players would not slowplay a pair of kings with the flush draw out there, so the likelihood of me having the best hand has gone up considerably since the point where I first checked. On top of that, I'm very likely to get reliable information about where I stand in the hand since these are players who will "play it straight" once i put in the check-raise. They will re-raise with any hand that beats me and just call with hands that I'm ahead of.

So, I put in the check-raise to $8 and only two players (a young kid and an old man, both of whom were very loose) call the $8 cold and CAG calls the $4 extra, confirming the fact that he still has two cards. I was not sure at this point exactly what i would do on the turn, but I was pretty sure that if I caught a blank at this point I would be a solid favorite to win, even against 3 opponents.

The pot was $60 and the turn card was the wonderful 2. Having caught probably the best card I could, I bet $8. The kid folded and the old man and CAG both called. At this point I was very confident I had the best hand b/c I had not been raised. If either the old man or CAG had me beaten, I would have heard about it by now. There is always the chance that one of them was being stubborn with a King, but I felt that was unlikely. I'm fully prepared to bet a non-club, non-ace river card.

The pot was $84 and the river card was the K. I'm not sure there could have been a better card in the deck. There is no way that this card could have beaten me. So, I led with another $8 bet. The old man called and CAG folded. I showed my Tens and he mucked his hand without showing, presumably a pair of nines or something.

I put in $28 and dragged a pot with $100 in it less the rake, so I ended up with about $67 in profit from that hand. Here is how I gave it back, or at least some of it.

In a very similar situation, I'm in the big blind once again and get dealt the A 9. This time 7 limpers come in for $4 and I check. That's right, only one player folded his hand before the flop. It was the middle-aged guy to my right and I immediately started making fun of him that he was playing too tight.

Anyway, here we are with $32 in the pot and the flop comes A 5 4. So, once again I've flopped a marginal hand, top pair weak kicker, out of position against a lot of players with many draws out. I decide that I'll do the same thing as last time and try to check-raise CAG when he bets in late position. Once again, it checks to CAG, who predictably bets. This is where the similarities end.

Tight, old lady, sitting directly to his left, then raises to $8 and the small blind folds. What would you do in my position? If you're smart, you said that you tossed your hand away without a second thought. However, if you're like me, you made it $12 right behind her.

I hadn't even taken my hand off of the chips yet and I knew I had made a HUGE error. TOL never raises without a super-strong hand. Even though she was smart enough to know that CAG was full of it most of the time when he bet, she is still the type of player who is going to wait until she has Aces so she can punish him. She is simply not making a play based on her position and who made the bet. Clearly, she has a big hand, or at the very least a hand that has A9 offsuit in loads of trouble.

I immediately started muttering to myself while the action went back around the table and one person called the three bets cold, CAG called the two bets and TOL re-raised, making it $16. Well, in what i could have easily done the last time the action was on me, I just went ahead and folded my hand with the certainty that she had either 55 or 44.

Seeing as how someone three-bets and then folds to a fourth bet approximately once per year in limit holdem, it was now the middle-aged man's turn to make fun of me. All I could say was, "I have no idea what I was thinking by three-betting her with only one pair and no kicker." And it was true. When she raises that flop bet, there is absolutely a 0% chance I have the best hand. In the best case scenario, I'm drawing to a 9 (3 outs) to make two pair......and that is best I could hope for.

Anyway, the hand played out with the 9 coming on the turn. I normally would have winced knowing that I might have sucked out on her, but I knew that this card would only cost me $8 more since I would still have to hit an A or 9 on the river to win. TOL bet and got called by the two remaining players.

The 3 came on the river. This time, CAG bet, indicating that whatever two cards he held had just sucked out on TOL. TOL called and showed 55 while CAG showed 6 2. He put in $16 on the flop and $8 more on the turn to draw at a likely three outs since the other player almost had to have a flush draw, making the 3 no good.

I think just about everyone would tell you that his play was absolutely atrocious, but just for some perspective on how bad my play was, he at least had an almost 10% chance of winning the hand. My equity in the pot, on the other hand, was about 2%, with my only chance being some running combination of A9. Not exactly the situation where you're eager to invest $12 and only receive about 4:1 for your trouble.

I'm just glad that the money went to CAG since it would be far more likely to find its way into some pot in the near future.

So, i took enough money out of the game to buy my drinks at the bar that night, but as soon as I stop three-betting tight, old ladies, I might have enough to buy dinner too.

Low Limit Casino Hold'Em is Still Good

I had to pick up my wife from the airport in New Orleans on Sunday evening July 15. Since I had nothing better to do that day and probably would have spent it playing poker online, I decided to go down to the city in mid-afternoon and play poker at Harrah's until it was time to pick her up at the airport.

Even though the passage of the online gambling bill last year has certainly put a dent into how good the online games are, it has apparently done nothing to dissuade bad poker players from going to the actual casinos and donating their money there.

I arrived at the poker room at about 3:00 after spending 45 minutes looking for a parking space in the Harrah's garage. I was absolutely pouring rain outside and when it rains, everyone in New Orleans apparently goes to the casino to gamble. Or maybe they offset their Sunday morning church with a little homage to the wheel of fortune. Whatever it is, the entire place was packed like it was Saturday evening.

The wait list for $1/$2 No Limit Hold'Em was 18 players long, so I put my name on the list and sat in a $3/$6 Limit Hold'Em game to pass the time until my name was called for the NL game.

It has been quite some time since I played a hand of limit poker when i was sober. If I want to play poker, but I'm drunk, I'll just play limit because you can play like a robot and still win in limit poker, whereas a foolish, intoxicated move might cost you all of your money at a NL table. It's kind of like playing blackjack after a night of drinking. You're probably not going to make all of the best decisions, but if you're playing $25 blackjack and you split tens against a 6 it will only cost you a fraction of that $25 bet because even though it is not the best choice you could make, you're still going to win the two hands a significant amount of the time.

Anyway, I sat at $3/$6 for about 2.5 hours and ran hotter than the sun, racking up a $250 win. Just for a point of reference, a $100 win over 3-4 hours, which would be 16 big bets, should be considered a solid win. Winning over 40 big bets in half the time is ridiculous. It was not anything that I did, and most good limit players would have played my hands the same way, it is just that every time i was in a pot, I managed to flop a good hand or excellent draw. And if I flopped a draw, it got there. I even took a pretty bad beat on one hand and still booked that large win.

Here's my favorite hand from the day. Anytime you flop a straight-flush and there is heavy four-way action, you are certainly living right.

Harrah's New Orleans $3/$6 Limit Hold'em

Hero is Button with 4d 3d
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks

Flop (8 sb): 5d 6d 7d
SB bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls

Turn (9 bb): 4c
SB checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, UTG caps, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls

River (25 bb): 7h
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, CO calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+1 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls

Final Pot (41 bb)

UTG shows Ad 8c (Straight, Four to Eight)
UTG+1 shows 6s 6c (Full House, Sixes full of Sevens)
CO shows 8d 7s (Straight, Four to Eight)
Hero shows 3d 4d (Straight Flush, Three to Seven)

Hero wins $246