College Football - Week 3

1. Southern California (-10 @ -110) @ Nebraska (1.1 Units)

Pete Carroll and USC did not play last week and only beat Idaho 38-10 in their season opener in Los Angeles.  You've been hearing much the same thing this week about USC as you heard about LSU last week prior to the Virginia Tech game.  They didn't look very impressive in week one, they played it close to the vest on offense, etc.

Well, while they had the week off, Oklahoma ran over Miami 51-13 and LSU destroyed Virginia Tech in all phases of the game 48-7.  So, these kids sat at home watching the other two teams in the Top 3 and then they got to hear all week how OU and LSU deserved to be 1 & 2 (or at least how LSU deserved to be ranked #1).  Then, add in the fact that Pete Carroll has quietly taken all of the bad mouthing of his program and his conference over the summer from Les Miles and other SEC fans who don't understand that the PAC-10 is every bit as good as the SEC this year.

I don't care how nice of a guy Pete Carroll is, this is a proud program with proud alumni and an extremely good team.  As if they needed motivation to go on the road and play the #14 team, but they got a healthy dose of it anyway.  Remember that this is basically the same team that went to Arkansas last year and won 50-13 and also beat Nebraska at home 28-14.  Carroll has also gone on the road out of conference in other seasons and won impressively at Auburn and at Virginia Tech.

2. Mississippi State @ Auburn (-13 @ -110) (1.1 Units); MSU Team Total Under 14.5 (-130) (1.3 Units)

Yeah, the Auburn offense is probably every bit as bad as they've looked over the past couple of weeks, but their defense is absolutely championship caliber.  If MSU gave the ball away 6 times a couple of weeks ago against LSU, you can book at least two turnovers this weekend.  If one of those gets returned for a TD or sets up a TD, then the offense only realistically has to come up with 10 more points against a decent (but certainly not as good as South Florida's) MSU defense to cover this.  I don't see how MSU scores two touchdowns and a field goal in this game.

3. BYU (-6.5 @ -110) @ Tulsa

BYU went on the road and played #13 UCLA very close before UCLA finally put them away late 27-17.  Included in that score was a defensive TD for UCLA and the game sealing TD with 1:12 remaining, so the score was a lot closer than it would appear.  BYU also put up 435 yards on one of the tougher defenses in the country while Tulsa went into halftime of their only game this season down 3 points to Louisiana-Monroe.  Here's hoping BYU duplicates last season's 49-24 win.  Not to be outdone, Oklahoma comes to Tulsa next week, so don't be surprised if the Golden Hurricanes are looking ahead.

4. Ohio @ Virginia Tech (-20.5 @ -110)

I think there is great value to this Virginia Tech team that won a close opener against East Carolina and then played roadkill in Tiger Stadium last weekend.  They are a very good team that simply isn't in the same class as LSU, and I think that fact is reflected in this line.  There's no reason for VaTech to be 27 point home favorites against ECU in Week 1 and only 20.5 favorites against an Ohio team that is worse.  Also helping the cause is freshman Tyrod Taylor being named the starter this week over interception machine Sean Glennon.  Taylor showed some spunk by leading the Hokies' only touchdown drive against LSU.

Leans:

Louisville (-6 @ -105) @ Kentucky - I'll play it if it comes down to Louisville -5.5, which appears likely since they are begging people to lay 6 points with the -105.

Middle Tennessee @ LSU - 1st Half Total Under 32 (-110).  The game total is 58.5 and won't budge.  I would have played the game total at anything under 63, so this appears to be just about the only place to get any value in this game.

Boston College @ Georgia Tech (-6.5 @ -110) - I just don't buy into the Eagles being able to go down to Atlanta and win the game against a stout defense and an improved offense.

Thursday Night Entertainment Plays

Of course I need to have a little action on the games tonight if I'm going to be at a bar with the games on.  So, here's a half-unit each to entertainment:

1. West Virginia @ Maryland - Total Under 61 (-110)

2. TCU (-8 @ -110) @ Air Force

Oh No! They're Hand-Dance Fighting!

Someone shared this with me earlier today and I had to pass it on (after watching it about 10 times).......YouTube has to be one of the best inventions on Al Gore's Inter-web.

Season to Date Record (2007.09.11)

2007 NFL Regular Season
Sides: 4-1 (5.65 ==> 8.45 ==> +2.800 Units)
Totals: 0-2 (2.20 ==> 0.00 ==> -2.200 Units)
Parlays: 0-0
Teasers: 1-0 (1.000 ==> 2.800 ==> +1.800 Units)

2007 College Football
Sides: 7-6 (15.500 ==> 16.800 ==> +1.300 Units)
Totals: 0-0
Parlays: 0-0
Teasers: 0-0

2007 NFL Preseason
Sides: 4-6 (5.975 ==> 6.000 ==> +0.025 Units)
Totals: 1-0 (0.55 ==> 1.05 ==> +0.50 Units)
Parlays: 1-0 (0.50 ==> 1.785 ==> +1.285 Units)
Teasers: 0-0

Totals
31.375 Units Wagered
36.885 Units Paid Out
-------------------------------

5.51 Units Won (17.56% ROI)

Keeping Up With the Future

I made several futures bets before the season started on a variety of propositions from how many touchdowns Reggie Bush will score as opposed to Ronnie Brown to how many games the Wisconsin Badgers will win this season.  Let's see how we're doing at the end of Week 2 of College and Week 1 of the NFL

1. Wisconsin Badgers Over 9.5 Wins (+100) - With Michigan looking like a second tier team here in the first two weeks of the season, it sure looks like the Badgers have 10 wins well within their sights.  I have the utmost confidence in Wisky's ability to take care of Michigan at home, leaving only @ Penn State and @ Ohio State as games where they may not be the favorite.  I put the chances of the Badgers losing three games this season at roughly 15%, mainly because they are the superior team in all three of the above mentioned games.

2. Oregon Ducks Over 7 Wins (-110) - How good does this bet look after they went into Ann Arbor and shellacked Michigan?  I know beating Michigan is increasingly something you can't really brag about, but we're 1/4 of the way to our total after two weeks.  If the Ducks don't suffer a let down this week against Fresno State at home, I'll feel very confident about this bet. 

3. Virginia Tech Under 10 Wins (-125) - The game against LSU was one of the VaTech games I had penciled in for a loss.  But, I am feeling a little shaky on this one simply because it doesn't appear that the ACC is as strong as I thought it would be.  I still have a nice shot at this one with the Hokies having to travel to Clemson and to Georgia Tech for conference games, but I don't think we can expect much out of Florida State or Miami at this point.  If Va Tech wins either the Clemson or Georgia Tech game, we may be rooting for a push.

4. Detroit Lions Over 6 Wins (-140) - They won one of the games they need to get to 6. 

5. San Francisco 49ers Over 8 Wins (+110) - They play tonight.  Taking care of winnable games is what they have to do to get to 8 wins.  Arizona is a winnable game.

6. Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs (+120) - Of course, beating last year's division champion to open the season will only help in this quest.

7. Touchdowns Scored - Reggie Bush (-2 @ -150) vs Ronnie Brown- Neither scored this weekend

8. Touchdown Passes - Jay Cutler (-2.5 @ -110) vs Chad Pennington - Pennington leads 2-1 in this race, but Kellen Clemons threw about 10 passes yesterday.  This may end up as the best of both worlds as this bet has the stipulation that both players must start in Week 1 (which they did) but has no stipulations thereafter.  Pennington getting benched would just be fantastic.

Added Plays for the Weekend

I bet on Georgia again yesterday afternoon as the line made it down to UGA -3.5.  Of course, Georgia ended up losing the game outright.  I also added the following plays this morning for the first week of the NFL

1. Detroit (+3 @ -110) @ Oakland

2. Denver @ Buffalo (+4 @ -110)

3. Baltimore (+3 @ -120) @ Cincinnati (Monday night)

4. 4-team Teaser (+300)

a. Tampa Bay @ Seattle (+0.5) - Win

b. Tennessee (+13) @ Jacksonville - Win

c. Philadelphia (+3) @ Green Bay - Push

d. New York Giants @ Dallas (Pick)

College Football - Week 2

Most of these bets were placed on Sunday afternoon not long after the lines were released.  Especially in college football, where you have a much larger chance of finding a blatantly bad line, it pays to have a general idea of next week's games and the differences between the two teams.  In some cases, you don't necessarily bet a bad line as much as you get a much better number than if you waited until later in the week.  I've included the current number to make myself feel smart, although in the case of Georgia, it turns out I could have waited.

1. Navy @ Rutgers (-13.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Rutgers -16.5 (-110)]

Navy should have covered against Temple last week, but only won by 11 points despite outgaining the Owls by over 150 yards.  Their downfall was caused by penalties and turnovers.  At least twice while driving to put the game away, Navy had a 1st-and-goal from the Temple 20.  They also turned it over twice, with one coming deep in their own territory and leading directly to a Temple touchdown.  Needless to say, this does not bode well for the Midshipmen as they travel to New Jersey to face a Rutgers team that easily handled Buffalo last week 38-3.  Ray Rice and Mike Teel were hitting on all cylinders last Thursday night and could end up burying Navy if they get up early and force the middies to start passing the ball.  Even if Navy keeps it close early and is able to keep handing the ball off, a Rutgers defense that gave up only 14 points per game last season is still salty enough to keep Navy from scoring. 

Despite their strong showing last season, Rutgers is still one of the most undervalued teams in the country.  Rutgers pounded Navy on the road last year 34-0 as 2 point dogs.

Rutgers 37 Navy 14

2. Miami @ Oklahoma (-10 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Oklahoma -10.5 (-110)]

Oklahoma's redshirt freshman QB, Sam Bradford, and true freshman running back, DeMarco Murray, came out looking sharp by scoring 49 points in the first half of their season opener.  The only bad news is that they did it against the North Texas defense and now have to try it against the Miami Hurricanes' defense.

Miami, for their part, took care of business in convincing fashion by beating Marshall at home 31-3.  The bad news for Miami is that their quarterback was not asked to do anything but hand the ball off and let the defense play.  Unfortunately, that will not be enough for the 'canes this weekend in Norman.

Oklahoma had nearly double the offensive yardage of Miami (668-337) while allowing just two more yards on defense (247-245).  Miami relied on 251 yards rushing against Marshall while Oklahoma gave up just 64 against North Texas.  In other words, the Hurricanes are going to have to get more than 86 passing yards out of Kirby Freeman if they want to win on the road because the Sooners have just as good of a defense as Miami and a slightly better running game.

I think the Under 43 in this game is a decent play as Bob Stoops is likely to use a heavy dose of the running game and let his defense and the crowd take care of the rest.

Oklahoma 28 Miami 14

3. South Carolina @ Georgia (-6 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [ Currently Georgia -4.5 (-110)]

Whoops!  After watching Georgia dismantle Oklahoma State while South Carolina struggled against UL-Lafayette, I was pleased to see the line for this game under a touchdown.  Then it started moving down and sits at UGA -4.5 (-110).  If it hits the magic number of -4, I may consider adding action.  If it somehow gets down to -3, then it would be a must bet.

Two points in favor of South Carolina is that starting quarterback Blake Mitchell was suspended for the opener against the Cajuns and it is quite possible that the Gamecocks were looking past ULL to this game.  After all, USC hasn't beaten Mark Richt and hasn't beaten Georgia since 2001.  They thought they were close last season and then went to Athens and got shut-out 18-0.  On top of that, Steve Spurrier has been making comments like, "I may have overstated our team" and "We played like a bunch of average Joes".  I think Darth Visor may have his team mentally prepared to play this weekend in a BIG home game.

However, a point against South Carolina is that Blake Mitchell does not play defense and the Gamecock defense allowed 370 total yards to a mediocre Sun Belt team.  Even though USC won 28-14, ULL had the ball twice inside the Gamecock 5-yard line and failed to come away with any points.  This has to be a huge concern as Matthew Stafford and the rest of the Georgia offense looked like they were in midseason form against a decent Oklahoma State team.

Spurrier has his work cut out for him getting his quarterback ready to play the first game of the season on the road in Athens.

Georgia 31 South Carolina 21

4. West Virginia (-23.5 @ -110) @ Marshall - 2.2 Units [Currently West Virginia -24 (-110)]

I broke with my tradition from last season of laying the points on West Virginia whenever possible.  Of course, they covered the 23.5 against a decently good Western Michigan team.  This week, they travel to play a Marshall team that turned it over 4 times and managed only 3 points against a stout Miami defense.  You can look for those numbers to improve against the less than impressive Mountaineer defense.  But, if you give up over 200 yards rushing to Miami, then you're in for a long afternoon against Pat White, Steve Slaton and Noel Devine. 

Also, Rich Rodriguez is not ashamed to run up the score to make his team look good in the polls (and cover for the alumni!)

West Virginia 55 Marshall 17

5. Notre Dame @ Penn State (-16.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Penn State -17.5 (-110)]

This line opened at 14.5 and I was hoping that the Notre Dame homers would bet it down to 14.  No such luck, however, as the line immediately took off in the opposite direction.  I feel somewhat fortunate to have gotten in under 17 points.

Yeah, Penn State doesn't quite have the same killer defense that Georgia Tech brought into South Bend last weekend, but it is still very very solid.  And, they have a far superior offense.  Good luck, Notre Dame!

Penn State 48 Notre Dame 10