College Football - Week 3

1. Southern California (-10 @ -110) @ Nebraska (1.1 Units)

Pete Carroll and USC did not play last week and only beat Idaho 38-10 in their season opener in Los Angeles.  You've been hearing much the same thing this week about USC as you heard about LSU last week prior to the Virginia Tech game.  They didn't look very impressive in week one, they played it close to the vest on offense, etc.

Well, while they had the week off, Oklahoma ran over Miami 51-13 and LSU destroyed Virginia Tech in all phases of the game 48-7.  So, these kids sat at home watching the other two teams in the Top 3 and then they got to hear all week how OU and LSU deserved to be 1 & 2 (or at least how LSU deserved to be ranked #1).  Then, add in the fact that Pete Carroll has quietly taken all of the bad mouthing of his program and his conference over the summer from Les Miles and other SEC fans who don't understand that the PAC-10 is every bit as good as the SEC this year.

I don't care how nice of a guy Pete Carroll is, this is a proud program with proud alumni and an extremely good team.  As if they needed motivation to go on the road and play the #14 team, but they got a healthy dose of it anyway.  Remember that this is basically the same team that went to Arkansas last year and won 50-13 and also beat Nebraska at home 28-14.  Carroll has also gone on the road out of conference in other seasons and won impressively at Auburn and at Virginia Tech.

2. Mississippi State @ Auburn (-13 @ -110) (1.1 Units); MSU Team Total Under 14.5 (-130) (1.3 Units)

Yeah, the Auburn offense is probably every bit as bad as they've looked over the past couple of weeks, but their defense is absolutely championship caliber.  If MSU gave the ball away 6 times a couple of weeks ago against LSU, you can book at least two turnovers this weekend.  If one of those gets returned for a TD or sets up a TD, then the offense only realistically has to come up with 10 more points against a decent (but certainly not as good as South Florida's) MSU defense to cover this.  I don't see how MSU scores two touchdowns and a field goal in this game.

3. BYU (-6.5 @ -110) @ Tulsa

BYU went on the road and played #13 UCLA very close before UCLA finally put them away late 27-17.  Included in that score was a defensive TD for UCLA and the game sealing TD with 1:12 remaining, so the score was a lot closer than it would appear.  BYU also put up 435 yards on one of the tougher defenses in the country while Tulsa went into halftime of their only game this season down 3 points to Louisiana-Monroe.  Here's hoping BYU duplicates last season's 49-24 win.  Not to be outdone, Oklahoma comes to Tulsa next week, so don't be surprised if the Golden Hurricanes are looking ahead.

4. Ohio @ Virginia Tech (-20.5 @ -110)

I think there is great value to this Virginia Tech team that won a close opener against East Carolina and then played roadkill in Tiger Stadium last weekend.  They are a very good team that simply isn't in the same class as LSU, and I think that fact is reflected in this line.  There's no reason for VaTech to be 27 point home favorites against ECU in Week 1 and only 20.5 favorites against an Ohio team that is worse.  Also helping the cause is freshman Tyrod Taylor being named the starter this week over interception machine Sean Glennon.  Taylor showed some spunk by leading the Hokies' only touchdown drive against LSU.

Leans:

Louisville (-6 @ -105) @ Kentucky - I'll play it if it comes down to Louisville -5.5, which appears likely since they are begging people to lay 6 points with the -105.

Middle Tennessee @ LSU - 1st Half Total Under 32 (-110).  The game total is 58.5 and won't budge.  I would have played the game total at anything under 63, so this appears to be just about the only place to get any value in this game.

Boston College @ Georgia Tech (-6.5 @ -110) - I just don't buy into the Eagles being able to go down to Atlanta and win the game against a stout defense and an improved offense.