College Football - Week 4

1. Florida @ Ole Miss - Florida (-21 @ -110) - 1.1 Units

Ole Miss has beaten Memphis on the road by 3 points and lost at home to Missouri by 13 points, although they trailed by 28 at one point in the game.  To compare situations, Missouri came into Oxford as 20 point favorites and now Florida is only favored by 21?  This just seems like a lot of value for a team that just beat Tennessee by 39 despite spotting the Volunteers a defensive touchdown.

The Florida defense has come along much faster than anyone imagined and since Ole Miss is nowhere near as good as Tennessee on offense, I don't see the Rebels scoring more than 17 points in this game.  If Missouri can score 38 on this team in Oxford, I'll put money all day long on Tim Tebow and company doing the same.

Florida 48 Ole Miss 14

2. South Carolina @ LSU - LSU (-16.5 @ -110) - 2.2 Units

I really don't believe that South Carolina is the 12th best team in the country, but I suppose I'll go along with it since I can't really say with conviction that another team should be ranked ahead of them.  The only serious game they've played this year was in Georgia where they won 17-12.  USC didn't really do anything impressive in that game outside of simply making fewer mistakes on offense than UGA and allowing Matt Stafford and his receivers to shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly.

Their offense is nothing to write home about and their defense, while pretty good, is not better than Virginia Tech's defense.  Giving South Carolina two touchdowns in this game would be fairly generous, but they'll score 7 points on average.  Betting on LSU to score 4 touchdowns at home is pretty attractive.

LSU 35 USC 7

3. Penn State @ Michigan - Penn State (-3 @ -105) - 1.05 Units

I was waiting all week for this line to move off of PSU -3 so I could take the Nittany Lions -2.5.  It still hasn't happened and, barring an avalanche of Michigan money tomorrow morning, probably won't.  It is currently at Penn State -3 @ +100.  I could have saved the 5 cents by waiting, but I wanted to make sure I got the 3 points and it didn't slip to 3.5.  I will definitely bet it again if it makes it below 3 points.

What else is there to say except that the best team in the Big 10 (not that anyone's bragging) is going to Ann Arbor to play a wounded UM team.  Penn State definitely does not run an offense like App State or Oregon (athletic QB with fast receivers) that gave Michigan trouble earlier, but they do have an outstanding running game and an above average passing offense.  Top that off with a stout rushing defense and Michigan will have to work hard to win this game.

Penn State 24 Michigan 14

4. East Carolina @ West Virginia - 1st Half East Carolina (+14 @ -105) - 1.05 Units

West Virginia has failed to cover the 1st half line in each of its three games this season, while covering the game spread each time.  They were actually losing to Marshall 13-6 at halftime before outscoring them 42-10 in the second half.

East Carolina, meanwhile, is scoring a respectable 20 points per game and moves the ball reasonably well with their version of the spread option. 

West Virginia's defense is allowing nearly 20 points per game, with the majority of those points being scored early in the game before its opponent is forced to give up on the run and try and pass their way back into the game.  If ECU can score 10 points, I think they will have taken enough time off of the clock to keep WVU under 4 scores.

The game will end up being a blowout, but I hope WVU continues its habit of taking a quarter or so to get into rhythm.

5. Troy @ UL Lafayette - Troy (-10 @ -120) - 1.2 Units

It could be a letdown game for Troy after they beat Oklahoma State last weekend, but I still can't resist laying 10 points on a solid team traveling to Lafayette to play a Cajuns squad that lost by two touchdowns to I-AA McNeese State last weekend.

The line is down to Troy -9.5 at the moment and I'm considering adding more action.

Troy 41 ULL 20

6. Oregon @ Stanford - Oregon (-16.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Units

Stanford is much better than they have been in the past, but there is a big difference between shutting out San Jose State at home and scoring enough points to keep up with the potent Oregon offense.

Oregon's defense is anything but stout, their 35-7 victory at Michigan notwithstanding.  After demonstrating their maturity by not letting up after their Michigan win, I can't imagine they'll be unprepared to play their conference opener against the Cardinal.

Stanford's offense is much improved and will score some points, but any team that gives up 45 points to UCLA is not going to be able to keep up with Oregon.

Oregon 52 Stanford 21

7. Oregon @ Stanford - Total Over 59.5 (-110) - 1.1 Units

See the above analysis.  We only need Stanford to score 17 points or so to clear this number.  This bet also has the added benefit of being somewhat of a hedge in that the probability of Oregon failing to cover AND the game going under 59.5 is fairly low while the probability of Oregon covering 16.5 AND the game going over is significant.

Numbers I'm Waiting On

1. Iowa at Wisconsin (Wisconsin -6.5) - The number is starting to drop after sitting at -7.5 all week.  It's at 7 now and likely to go down after Wisconsin allowed 31 to the Citadel last week.  It doesn't matter, though, as Iowa lost to god-awful Iowa State last weekend.

2. Michigan State @ Notre Dame (Michigan State -10) - Regardless of whether the game drops to -10 today, I'm going to wait until kickoff to bet it.  This game opened at -14 and has been steadily dropping all week.  I know Notre Dame is going to win a game eventually and stop getting blown out, but this isn't the week.  I liked this game at MSU -13, but didn't see any reason to bet it if the line will continue downward.  It currently sits at MSU -10.5.

3. Illinois @ Indiana (Illinois -2.5) - This number was available earlier in the week but I was not ready to bet it.  Hopefully I'll be able to get it again.