You don't have to win every one (a.k.a. Chasing Losses)

So I ended the first weekend of college football 3-4 and down 1.5 Units.  Going into Labor Day, I was 2-2 on my posted plays and down the cost of the vig (0.2 Units).  I could have left well-enough alone, since I did not have strong opinions on either game yesterday.  But, then I of course decided that if I was going to watch 6-7 hours of football that I needed a little action on the games. 

This, in and of itself, is not too terrible since I'm not giving up much expectation by randomly choosing a side.  Theoretically, blindly betting either side of the point spread should be even money since the spread is intended to divide the public's opinion 50/50 as to the outcome of the game.  Of course, this assumes that the market is efficient and all available information is accounted for in the current spread.  So, I decided to lay the points in Texas Tech and came up with a win to put me in front 0.8 Units for the weekend.

After that game was over, I checked the line on the FSU/Clemson game and it had come down to FSU -3 (-115) after being at FSU -3.5 for most of the week.  Since I had just won and could only end up being 0.1 Units worse off than when I started the day, I played FSU -3 and laid 1.15 Units to win 1.  Again, this is not so terrible.

Then, Clemson is up 24-3 at halftime, with the only Florida State points coming on a field goal after blocked punt.  FSU had one first down (on the first play of the game) in the first half and had absolutely no answer for Clemson's running game.  It was at this point that I had the bright idea to take the Clemson moneyline for the second half at +100 and lay 1.15 Units on that bet so that I could come out even for the game. 

This is truly atrocious as I have taken even money and created a huge middle where I can lose both bets and a relatively small likelihood that I win one and lose one.  In other words, with the 24-3 halftime score, I essentially have my first bet (FSU -3) converted into FSU -26 for the second half.  I then worsen my situation by creating the circumstance where Florida State outscores Clemson by anything from 1 point to 25 points in the second half and I lose both bets.  That's the sign of a disciplined bettor right there. </sarcasm>

It is simply inexcusable to study the lines all week and carefully consider what wagers to make and then wipe everything out with impulse wagers at halftime of the last game of the week.  It is a tough lesson, but one that I'm better off learning now, that's for sure.

Just to show what this does to the bottom line.  If I had not wagered at all yesterday, my net for the weekend would have been -0.3 Units and my ROI overall would have been 17%.  Had I stopped after the Texas Tech game, my net would have been 0.8 Units and my ROI would have been 21%. 

See the next post to see me starting over at square one.