Most of these bets were placed on Sunday afternoon not long after the lines were released. Especially in college football, where you have a much larger chance of finding a blatantly bad line, it pays to have a general idea of next week's games and the differences between the two teams. In some cases, you don't necessarily bet a bad line as much as you get a much better number than if you waited until later in the week. I've included the current number to make myself feel smart, although in the case of Georgia, it turns out I could have waited.
1. Navy @ Rutgers (-13.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Rutgers -16.5 (-110)]
Navy should have covered against Temple last week, but only won by 11 points despite outgaining the Owls by over 150 yards. Their downfall was caused by penalties and turnovers. At least twice while driving to put the game away, Navy had a 1st-and-goal from the Temple 20. They also turned it over twice, with one coming deep in their own territory and leading directly to a Temple touchdown. Needless to say, this does not bode well for the Midshipmen as they travel to New Jersey to face a Rutgers team that easily handled Buffalo last week 38-3. Ray Rice and Mike Teel were hitting on all cylinders last Thursday night and could end up burying Navy if they get up early and force the middies to start passing the ball. Even if Navy keeps it close early and is able to keep handing the ball off, a Rutgers defense that gave up only 14 points per game last season is still salty enough to keep Navy from scoring.
Despite their strong showing last season, Rutgers is still one of the most undervalued teams in the country. Rutgers pounded Navy on the road last year 34-0 as 2 point dogs.
Rutgers 37 Navy 14
2. Miami @ Oklahoma (-10 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Oklahoma -10.5 (-110)]
Oklahoma's redshirt freshman QB, Sam Bradford, and true freshman running back, DeMarco Murray, came out looking sharp by scoring 49 points in the first half of their season opener. The only bad news is that they did it against the North Texas defense and now have to try it against the Miami Hurricanes' defense.
Miami, for their part, took care of business in convincing fashion by beating Marshall at home 31-3. The bad news for Miami is that their quarterback was not asked to do anything but hand the ball off and let the defense play. Unfortunately, that will not be enough for the 'canes this weekend in Norman.
Oklahoma had nearly double the offensive yardage of Miami (668-337) while allowing just two more yards on defense (247-245). Miami relied on 251 yards rushing against Marshall while Oklahoma gave up just 64 against North Texas. In other words, the Hurricanes are going to have to get more than 86 passing yards out of Kirby Freeman if they want to win on the road because the Sooners have just as good of a defense as Miami and a slightly better running game.
I think the Under 43 in this game is a decent play as Bob Stoops is likely to use a heavy dose of the running game and let his defense and the crowd take care of the rest.
Oklahoma 28 Miami 14
3. South Carolina @ Georgia (-6 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [ Currently Georgia -4.5 (-110)]
Whoops! After watching Georgia dismantle Oklahoma State while South Carolina struggled against UL-Lafayette, I was pleased to see the line for this game under a touchdown. Then it started moving down and sits at UGA -4.5 (-110). If it hits the magic number of -4, I may consider adding action. If it somehow gets down to -3, then it would be a must bet.
Two points in favor of South Carolina is that starting quarterback Blake Mitchell was suspended for the opener against the Cajuns and it is quite possible that the Gamecocks were looking past ULL to this game. After all, USC hasn't beaten Mark Richt and hasn't beaten Georgia since 2001. They thought they were close last season and then went to Athens and got shut-out 18-0. On top of that, Steve Spurrier has been making comments like, "I may have overstated our team" and "We played like a bunch of average Joes". I think Darth Visor may have his team mentally prepared to play this weekend in a BIG home game.
However, a point against South Carolina is that Blake Mitchell does not play defense and the Gamecock defense allowed 370 total yards to a mediocre Sun Belt team. Even though USC won 28-14, ULL had the ball twice inside the Gamecock 5-yard line and failed to come away with any points. This has to be a huge concern as Matthew Stafford and the rest of the Georgia offense looked like they were in midseason form against a decent Oklahoma State team.
Spurrier has his work cut out for him getting his quarterback ready to play the first game of the season on the road in Athens.
Georgia 31 South Carolina 21
4. West Virginia (-23.5 @ -110) @ Marshall - 2.2 Units [Currently West Virginia -24 (-110)]
I broke with my tradition from last season of laying the points on West Virginia whenever possible. Of course, they covered the 23.5 against a decently good Western Michigan team. This week, they travel to play a Marshall team that turned it over 4 times and managed only 3 points against a stout Miami defense. You can look for those numbers to improve against the less than impressive Mountaineer defense. But, if you give up over 200 yards rushing to Miami, then you're in for a long afternoon against Pat White, Steve Slaton and Noel Devine.
Also, Rich Rodriguez is not ashamed to run up the score to make his team look good in the polls (and cover for the alumni!)
West Virginia 55 Marshall 17
5. Notre Dame @ Penn State (-16.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Penn State -17.5 (-110)]
This line opened at 14.5 and I was hoping that the Notre Dame homers would bet it down to 14. No such luck, however, as the line immediately took off in the opposite direction. I feel somewhat fortunate to have gotten in under 17 points.
Yeah, Penn State doesn't quite have the same killer defense that Georgia Tech brought into South Bend last weekend, but it is still very very solid. And, they have a far superior offense. Good luck, Notre Dame!
Penn State 48 Notre Dame 10
No comments:
Post a Comment