I don't think anyone would argue that Limit Hold'Em is a profitable game when playing in a casino. A large part of the reason this is true is because many of the players call bets with hands that can't possibly be good as well as draw with hands that are such statistical longshots that they won't win enough money when their draw hits to overcome how much money they lose the many times it does not. With most everyone at the table playing this way, simply choosing good starting hands and raising when you get them is going to make you a winner in the long run.
However, because everyone's range of hands is so wide, it becomes very difficult to deduce what another player holds. When they call a flop bet, they could have bottom pair, a gutshot straight draw, two pair, a set or even just unpaired overcards that they hope will win if they hit on the turn. It is much more useful to simply give the field a certain hand rather than try to pinpoint each player. For instance, I was playing $3/$6 limit at Harrah's yesterday and limped up front with the Ad4d. It was such a game that there was likely to be no raise before the flop. And even if there was, it was unlikely to thin the field any. On this particular hand, though, a pretty loose old man who had been raising with any suited Ace raised two seats behind me and got four callers. Of course, I called the raise as did the guy between me and the old man.
I knew I was in trouble since he's highly likely to have an Ace with a better kicker but I'm getting over 10:1 to try to outflop him, which I did when the flop came Ac 8h 4h. With the large pot, it was far more important to protect my hand than to try to get extra bets out of anyone. Thinking that the old man has likely paired his Ace, I led into the field with a bet and the old man did not disappoint and raised it to $6. The player on the button called the $6 cold and I chose to simply call the raise. I had to put the third player on a flush draw since we know where three of the four aces are and there were no other draws on the board save for the gutshot straight draw. By flat calling, I thought I could get in a check-raise on the turn should a third heart not fall and make the third player pay $12 to draw. This is a somewhat important concept in that I've turned what is considered the worst position at a hold'em table in which I have to act first on every round and, by reading the old man's hand, have turned it into a situation where I'm acting last and can get two double bets out of both of them. Also, if the third heart does fall, I can check and see if the third player wakes up and also have a good idea of the price I'll be receiving to draw to a full house.
Anyway, the turn came the 2s and I checked, as planned. The old man bet, the third player called and I check-raised, which was unsurprisingly called in both places. The river was the terrible 8s, completely ruining any hand that I had. I just gave up and checked knowing that the old man would call with his now winning hand. The hand checked around and the old man took down the pot with As9s, while the third player showed the 10c10d.
The moral of the story is I severely misread the third player's hand because who would have ever thought that he would take all that heat with a pair of tens. In addition, it became clear to me that the old man does not understand the concept of a "kicker". I know nobody would ever fold top pair to a turn check-raise, but he had to have realized his hand was not good when he has all but told the table he has at least a pair of aces and I'm telling him that I can beat a pair of aces. Evidently the other player didn't hear this message because he obviously thought his tens were good. Whatever logic these players were using to play their hands usually confounds someone trying to figure out what they have.
BUT! I said that sometimes it IS possible to read hands in limit hold'em. There was one player at the table, a kid that looked to be in his mid-twenties, that I had previously pegged as a decent player. And by decent player, I mean not completely and utterly brain-dead. During one of his first hands at the table, he bet the turn and folded to a raise, making a comment that he had "Ace-medium". By folding and saying this, he could not have stood out any more starkly if he were playing without clothes on. Nobody says "Ace-medium" to describe their hand unless they are trying to think about the game logically. Furthermore, for all of the hours I've played poker in the casino, this is probably the third or fourth player I've encountered who can successfully bet and then fold to a raise on the same betting round. I do it when appropriate, but it is truly surprising when I see someone else do it. After seeing and hearing all of this, I made a mental note that I he can probably be moved off of his hand if you can convince him his hand is no good.
So, about 30 minutes later, I get dealt the AsJc in early position and bring it in with a raise. I get the customary four callers and then the player I just described makes it three bets from the big blind. Since he is a decent player, I figure he is three-better from out of position with AA,KK,QQ and AK. I'm not sure whether he would do it with JJ or TT, as a lot of good players will do. I call once again, as does everyone else. We take the flop five handed for three bets ($45) and it comes down Ah 8s 3s. The pre-flop three-bettor checks with a disgusted look on his face, all but telling me that he has a pocket pair and not AK. The guy in front of me checks and I of course bet. The two players behind me fold while the two players in front of me call. The turn comes the 5s, completing the flush draw. I'm still trying to decide whether I will bet or check when the kid wakes up and leads with a bet himself, folding the player between us. Since the player most likely to hold a flush (the in-between player) has folded, and I know what the kid has, I make a fairly easy raise. I am rooting for him to call, hoping that he has the spade of whatever pair he has and will draw at it not realizing that he is drawing dead because I have the As. But, that was all the money I would get out of him as he folded and flashed the 10h10s.
You'll hear people talk about "gaining deception" on a hand by playing it in a non-standard way. Mostly, this applies to people limping in or just calling before the flop when they have pocket aces, but it just as easily means three-betting before the flop with 76 suited. The vast majority of the time, however, people will play the same hand the same way, regardless of the circumstances. By three-betting before the flop, the kid told me with reasonable certainty that he had a big pocket pair or AK. I was then able to apply that knowledge to get the maximum number of bets out of him without fearing his hand. Conversely, I could just have easily had KJ or some other hand in this spot and used the same thought process to move the kid off of his hand. It's not that the kid did anything wrong in the hand, it's that I realized he was a good player before he realized I was.
You certainly don't come across good players very often in those casino hold'em games, but, when you do, it IS possible to read their hands.
