NFL - Week 4

Once again, here are the picks from me and from the dart thrower.  In fairness, Danny does confess to knowing a LOT more about the NFL than college football, so his picks should be somewhat more informed than his ones on Saturday.

 

Game	Justin	Danny
Green Bay @ Minnesota	Green Bay (-1 @ -110))	Green Bay (-2)
New York Jets @ Buffalo	New York Jets (-3 @ -120)	New York Jets (-4)
Seattle @ San Francisco	Total Under 41 (-110)	Total Under 41
Pittsburgh @ Arizona	Total Over 41.5	Total Over 41.5
New England @ Cincinnati	New England (-7 @ -115)	New England (-7)

 

The rest of my action for the day is this:

1. Chicago @ Detroit - Detroit Team Total Over 21 (-130)

2. Tampa Bay vs Minnesota - Tampa Bay (PK @ -110)

College Football - Week 5

To accommodate our efficient markets test, I'll just start posting my plays in table format with Danny's choices in a second column to the right of mine.  Hopefully we can get this losing streak turned around.

NOTE: I'm including the Southern Miss/Boise State game in this list for tracking purposes only.  I did not have action on this game (fortunately).

	Game	Units	Justin	Result	Danny	Result
1.	Louisville @ NC State	1.1	Louisville (-8.5 @ -110)	1.0	Louisville (-9 @ -110)	1.0
2.	USC @ Washington	1.1	USC (-20.5 @ -110)	(1.1)	Washington (+21 @ -110)	1.0
3.	Alabama @ Florida State	1.0	Alabama (+110)	(1.0)	Alabama (+3 @ -110)	(1.1)
4.	Oklahoma @ Colorado	1.1	Oklahoma (-23 @ -110)	(1.1)	Colorado (+23 @ -110)	1.0
5.	Iowa State @ Nebraska	1.1	Total Under 57 (-110)	1.0	Total Over 56.6 (-110)	(1.1)
6.	Notre Dame @ Purdue	1.1	Total Over 53.5 (-110)	(1.1)	Total Over 53.5 (-110)	(1.1)
7.	Maryland @ Rutgers	1.1	Rutgers (-18 @ -110)	(1.1)	Maryland (+17 @ -110)	1.0
8.	Memphis @ Arkansas State	1.1	Arkansas State (-5.5 @ -110)	(1.1)	Arkansas State (-4 @ -110)	0.0
9.	Southern Miss @ Boise State	1.1	Total Under 51 (-110)	(1.1)	Total Under 49.5 (-110)	(1.1)
		9.8		(5.6)		(0.4)

College Football - Week 5 (Thursday Night)

Two plays for the evening, both of them legitimate and not simply for entertainment:

1. Memphis @ Arkansas State (-5.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Units

This line was at Ark State -4 this morning and I failed to bet it only to come back to it at -4.5 this afternoon and having it jump up to -5.5 while I was hoping it would go back to -4.  I still like it as I have Arkansas State as 11 point favorites here.

 

EDIT: I was late getting home from work and was not able to get a bet down on the Boise St/Southern Miss Under.  The line went off at 51 (-110).  This is what I would have bet had I not been held up.  As it is, I have no action on this game.

Do Efficient Markets Exist?

Everyone understanding the fundamentals of sports betting knows that the bookmaker earns his money from the 10% commission he charges on losing bets, otherwise known as the "juice" or the "vig".  He hopefully can book equal action on both sides of the event and simply pay the winners with the losers' money and keep the rest.

Because of this, winning 50% of your games will not break even.  Instead, in order to break even laying an average of $11 to win $10, you must win 11 games for every 10 bets that you lose.  In other words, you must win 11/21 = 52.38% of your bets just to break even. 

Consequently, to determine if you would like to bet into a posted line, you must feel confident that your bet will win more than 52.38% of the time.  If you feel it will, then you have a bet and vice versa. 

This is all just the basic concept in (hopefully) winning at sports betting.

But, the idea behind the point spread is to quantify the difference in strength between two teams.  In addition to the information contained in the original line on a game, the bets that are taken throughout the week should insert more information into the line.  Once all available information has been taken into account (through initial lines and action), the point spread should theoretically be at a point where it does not matter which side you take.  If the two teams played each other 1,000 times, they would each cover the spread 500 times.....IF the point spread market is efficient.

However, we know that efficient markets are something that exist solely in economics and finance classrooms, otherwise there would not be any winning sports bettors, just as there would not be any profitable stock market investors if that market was efficient.  There will always be individual options that are under or over-valued just as there will always be investors present to exploit those differences in value.  This applies to stocks, point spreads, insurance policies and any other number of options.

As the saying goes, if markets were efficient then "a monkey throwing darts at the wall" could pick investments just as well as someone carefully analyzing data to make their decisions.  If markets were efficient, then it simply wouldn't matter what you did as you would never realize a monetary return on your investment......the only gain would be in the simple utility of what you receive in return for your capital.

To answer the question of whether someone without knowledge can break even, my friend Danny and I are going to pick every college football game every week.  Danny does not know much about the schools outside of the SEC and will take the lines every week and make his selections in the time span of about 10 minutes (or as long as it takes for him to draw 50 or so circles on a piece of paper.  In the meantime, I will continue to post my plays as I have been and we will compare Danny's results on the games that I play to my own.

Hopefully the market is as inefficient as I think it is!

Season to Date Record (2007.09.25)

2007 NFL Regular Season

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	5-6-1	13.30	11.55	(1.75)	(13.16%)
Totals	2-3	5.50	4.20	(1.30)	(23.67%)
Teasers	1-0	1.00	2.80	1.800	180.00%
Parlays	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Props	2-2-1	5.50	5.30	(0.20)	(3.67%)
Total:	9-11-2	25.30	23.85	(1.45)	(5.73)%

2007 College Football

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	12-14	30.35	27.40	(2.95)	(9.72)%
Totals	2-1	2.95	3.15	0.20	6.78%
Teasers	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Parlays	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Total:	14-15	33.30	30.55	(2.75)	(8.26)%

2007 NFL Preseason

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	4-6	5.975	6.000	0.025	0.42%
Totals	1-0	0.550	1.050	0.500	90.91%
Teasers	0-0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00%
Parlays	1-0	0.500	1.785	1.285	257.00%
Total:	6-6	7.025	8.835	1.810	25.77%

Summary

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
NFL	9-11-2	25.300	23.850	(1.450)	(5.38)%
College	14-15	33.300	30.550	(2.750)	(8.26)%
Preseason	6-6	7.025	8.835	1.810	25.77%
Total:	29-32-2	65.625	63.235	(2.390)	(3.64)%

NFL Week 3

I didn't have time to post these prior to the games, but here was my card for Sunday.....which turned out to be a nice continuation of Saturday.

1. Indianapolis @ Houston - Total Under 47 (-110) - 1.1 Units - Loss

2. Miami @ New York Jets (-3 @ -110) - 1.1 Units - Pushed after the Jets squandered a 31-13 lead with 13 minutes left in the game

3. San Francisco (1st Half +7 @ -115) @ Pittsburgh - 1.15 Units - Pittsburgh touchdown pass with :37 left in the first half covered this number against me

4. Cincinnati @ Seattle - 1st Half Total Under 26.5 (-110) - 1.1 Units - Win

5. Detroit (-110) vs New York Jets - 1.1 Units - Loss

6. Oakland (-110) vs Baltimore - 1.1 Units - Push

7. Washington vs Chicago - Total Over 44.5 (-110) - 1.1 Units - Loss

It IS possible to read hands in Limit Hold'Em

I don't think anyone would argue that Limit Hold'Em is a profitable game when playing in a casino. A large part of the reason this is true is because many of the players call bets with hands that can't possibly be good as well as draw with hands that are such statistical longshots that they won't win enough money when their draw hits to overcome how much money they lose the many times it does not. With most everyone at the table playing this way, simply choosing good starting hands and raising when you get them is going to make you a winner in the long run.

However, because everyone's range of hands is so wide, it becomes very difficult to deduce what another player holds. When they call a flop bet, they could have bottom pair, a gutshot straight draw, two pair, a set or even just unpaired overcards that they hope will win if they hit on the turn. It is much more useful to simply give the field a certain hand rather than try to pinpoint each player. For instance, I was playing $3/$6 limit at Harrah's yesterday and limped up front with the Ad4d. It was such a game that there was likely to be no raise before the flop. And even if there was, it was unlikely to thin the field any. On this particular hand, though, a pretty loose old man who had been raising with any suited Ace raised two seats behind me and got four callers. Of course, I called the raise as did the guy between me and the old man.

I knew I was in trouble since he's highly likely to have an Ace with a better kicker but I'm getting over 10:1 to try to outflop him, which I did when the flop came Ac 8h 4h. With the large pot, it was far more important to protect my hand than to try to get extra bets out of anyone. Thinking that the old man has likely paired his Ace, I led into the field with a bet and the old man did not disappoint and raised it to $6. The player on the button called the $6 cold and I chose to simply call the raise. I had to put the third player on a flush draw since we know where three of the four aces are and there were no other draws on the board save for the gutshot straight draw. By flat calling, I thought I could get in a check-raise on the turn should a third heart not fall and make the third player pay $12 to draw. This is a somewhat important concept in that I've turned what is considered the worst position at a hold'em table in which I have to act first on every round and, by reading the old man's hand, have turned it into a situation where I'm acting last and can get two double bets out of both of them. Also, if the third heart does fall, I can check and see if the third player wakes up and also have a good idea of the price I'll be receiving to draw to a full house.

Anyway, the turn came the 2s and I checked, as planned. The old man bet, the third player called and I check-raised, which was unsurprisingly called in both places. The river was the terrible 8s, completely ruining any hand that I had. I just gave up and checked knowing that the old man would call with his now winning hand. The hand checked around and the old man took down the pot with As9s, while the third player showed the 10c10d.

The moral of the story is I severely misread the third player's hand because who would have ever thought that he would take all that heat with a pair of tens. In addition, it became clear to me that the old man does not understand the concept of a "kicker". I know nobody would ever fold top pair to a turn check-raise, but he had to have realized his hand was not good when he has all but told the table he has at least a pair of aces and I'm telling him that I can beat a pair of aces. Evidently the other player didn't hear this message because he obviously thought his tens were good. Whatever logic these players were using to play their hands usually confounds someone trying to figure out what they have.

BUT! I said that sometimes it IS possible to read hands in limit hold'em. There was one player at the table, a kid that looked to be in his mid-twenties, that I had previously pegged as a decent player. And by decent player, I mean not completely and utterly brain-dead. During one of his first hands at the table, he bet the turn and folded to a raise, making a comment that he had "Ace-medium". By folding and saying this, he could not have stood out any more starkly if he were playing without clothes on. Nobody says "Ace-medium" to describe their hand unless they are trying to think about the game logically. Furthermore, for all of the hours I've played poker in the casino, this is probably the third or fourth player I've encountered who can successfully bet and then fold to a raise on the same betting round. I do it when appropriate, but it is truly surprising when I see someone else do it. After seeing and hearing all of this, I made a mental note that I he can probably be moved off of his hand if you can convince him his hand is no good.

So, about 30 minutes later, I get dealt the AsJc in early position and bring it in with a raise. I get the customary four callers and then the player I just described makes it three bets from the big blind. Since he is a decent player, I figure he is three-better from out of position with AA,KK,QQ and AK. I'm not sure whether he would do it with JJ or TT, as a lot of good players will do. I call once again, as does everyone else. We take the flop five handed for three bets ($45) and it comes down Ah 8s 3s. The pre-flop three-bettor checks with a disgusted look on his face, all but telling me that he has a pocket pair and not AK. The guy in front of me checks and I of course bet. The two players behind me fold while the two players in front of me call. The turn comes the 5s, completing the flush draw. I'm still trying to decide whether I will bet or check when the kid wakes up and leads with a bet himself, folding the player between us. Since the player most likely to hold a flush (the in-between player) has folded, and I know what the kid has, I make a fairly easy raise. I am rooting for him to call, hoping that he has the spade of whatever pair he has and will draw at it not realizing that he is drawing dead because I have the As. But, that was all the money I would get out of him as he folded and flashed the 10h10s.

You'll hear people talk about "gaining deception" on a hand by playing it in a non-standard way. Mostly, this applies to people limping in or just calling before the flop when they have pocket aces, but it just as easily means three-betting before the flop with 76 suited. The vast majority of the time, however, people will play the same hand the same way, regardless of the circumstances. By three-betting before the flop, the kid told me with reasonable certainty that he had a big pocket pair or AK. I was then able to apply that knowledge to get the maximum number of bets out of him without fearing his hand. Conversely, I could just have easily had KJ or some other hand in this spot and used the same thought process to move the kid off of his hand. It's not that the kid did anything wrong in the hand, it's that I realized he was a good player before he realized I was.

You certainly don't come across good players very often in those casino hold'em games, but, when you do, it IS possible to read their hands.

The Ol' Ball Coach Always Covers for the Alumni

The Oregon Ducks helped me avert a disastrous Saturday and kept the damage to a manageable extent.  I was 2-4 going into that game, but Oregon covering and the game going over put me at 4-4 today.  Unfortunately, I lost both of my two unit plays as LSU failed to cover and Penn State failed to win altogether.  Naturally, I forgot to bet Michigan State this morning before leaving for the tailgate party and they covered.  The most disappointing thing is LSU failing to cover when they were ahead 28-7 in the fourth quarter, giving up a late touchdown to only win by 12.  Of course, I can't really complain too much since they scored one of their touchdowns on a fake field goal in the 1st half.

The more interesting thing is the end-game strategy of Steve Spurrier.  It's been a constant joke over the years that "Steve Spurrier always covers for the alumni."  When he was at Florida, this was somewhat difficult as those powerful Gator teams were always a substantial favorite.  This has been the funniest explanation of why he liked to run the score up.

BUT......today, he made a questionable decision in the 4th quarter to kick a field goal instead of going for the touchdown.  South Carolina had Fourth-and-goal at the LSU 6 with 7:48 left in the game trailing LSU by the score of 28-7.  Clearly, the only choice in this situation is to go for the end zone.  Being down by 21, there is no combination of 3 scores that includes a field goal that will make up the 21 point deficit.  Sure, a touchdown in this situation against the LSU defense is unlikely, but kicking the field goal makes winning next to impossible.  Anyway, Spurrier chooses to kick the field goal to make it an 18 point game.

Interestingly enough, the spread on the game had moved to LSU -18 last night.  Choosing to trail by 18 so they could at least push against the spread instead of the more likely 21 point deficit had he gone for the touchdown is the only explanation I can come up with for this decision.  Even Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson were openly questioning the strategy.  I'm sure they both knew what the number was in this game and simply did not want to open that can of worms.

I wonder if any writers will bring this up this week, especially in light of the fact that South Carolina was able to later score a touchdown (but missed the 2-point conversion) to make the final score 28-16.  Had they scored a touchdown earlier, then they could have kicked the extra point and only trailed by 7 points with 1:48 left in the game.  Certainly still a huge underdog to tie the game, but at least they would have still been alive. 

As it was, the final touchdown meant nothing to anyone other than gamblers.

Lay the Wood on the Fighting Zooks!

I got one of the numbers I was looking for and laid 1.1 Units on Illinois (-2.5 @ -110) @ Indiana.  This is nothing more than the fact that I think Illinois is the better football team and 2.5 points is akin to a pick'em in college football.

I'm still waiting on Michigan State and Wisconsin.

College Football - Week 4

1. Florida @ Ole Miss - Florida (-21 @ -110) - 1.1 Units

Ole Miss has beaten Memphis on the road by 3 points and lost at home to Missouri by 13 points, although they trailed by 28 at one point in the game.  To compare situations, Missouri came into Oxford as 20 point favorites and now Florida is only favored by 21?  This just seems like a lot of value for a team that just beat Tennessee by 39 despite spotting the Volunteers a defensive touchdown.

The Florida defense has come along much faster than anyone imagined and since Ole Miss is nowhere near as good as Tennessee on offense, I don't see the Rebels scoring more than 17 points in this game.  If Missouri can score 38 on this team in Oxford, I'll put money all day long on Tim Tebow and company doing the same.

Florida 48 Ole Miss 14

2. South Carolina @ LSU - LSU (-16.5 @ -110) - 2.2 Units

I really don't believe that South Carolina is the 12th best team in the country, but I suppose I'll go along with it since I can't really say with conviction that another team should be ranked ahead of them.  The only serious game they've played this year was in Georgia where they won 17-12.  USC didn't really do anything impressive in that game outside of simply making fewer mistakes on offense than UGA and allowing Matt Stafford and his receivers to shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly.

Their offense is nothing to write home about and their defense, while pretty good, is not better than Virginia Tech's defense.  Giving South Carolina two touchdowns in this game would be fairly generous, but they'll score 7 points on average.  Betting on LSU to score 4 touchdowns at home is pretty attractive.

LSU 35 USC 7

3. Penn State @ Michigan - Penn State (-3 @ -105) - 1.05 Units

I was waiting all week for this line to move off of PSU -3 so I could take the Nittany Lions -2.5.  It still hasn't happened and, barring an avalanche of Michigan money tomorrow morning, probably won't.  It is currently at Penn State -3 @ +100.  I could have saved the 5 cents by waiting, but I wanted to make sure I got the 3 points and it didn't slip to 3.5.  I will definitely bet it again if it makes it below 3 points.

What else is there to say except that the best team in the Big 10 (not that anyone's bragging) is going to Ann Arbor to play a wounded UM team.  Penn State definitely does not run an offense like App State or Oregon (athletic QB with fast receivers) that gave Michigan trouble earlier, but they do have an outstanding running game and an above average passing offense.  Top that off with a stout rushing defense and Michigan will have to work hard to win this game.

Penn State 24 Michigan 14

4. East Carolina @ West Virginia - 1st Half East Carolina (+14 @ -105) - 1.05 Units

West Virginia has failed to cover the 1st half line in each of its three games this season, while covering the game spread each time.  They were actually losing to Marshall 13-6 at halftime before outscoring them 42-10 in the second half.

East Carolina, meanwhile, is scoring a respectable 20 points per game and moves the ball reasonably well with their version of the spread option. 

West Virginia's defense is allowing nearly 20 points per game, with the majority of those points being scored early in the game before its opponent is forced to give up on the run and try and pass their way back into the game.  If ECU can score 10 points, I think they will have taken enough time off of the clock to keep WVU under 4 scores.

The game will end up being a blowout, but I hope WVU continues its habit of taking a quarter or so to get into rhythm.

5. Troy @ UL Lafayette - Troy (-10 @ -120) - 1.2 Units

It could be a letdown game for Troy after they beat Oklahoma State last weekend, but I still can't resist laying 10 points on a solid team traveling to Lafayette to play a Cajuns squad that lost by two touchdowns to I-AA McNeese State last weekend.

The line is down to Troy -9.5 at the moment and I'm considering adding more action.

Troy 41 ULL 20

6. Oregon @ Stanford - Oregon (-16.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Units

Stanford is much better than they have been in the past, but there is a big difference between shutting out San Jose State at home and scoring enough points to keep up with the potent Oregon offense.

Oregon's defense is anything but stout, their 35-7 victory at Michigan notwithstanding.  After demonstrating their maturity by not letting up after their Michigan win, I can't imagine they'll be unprepared to play their conference opener against the Cardinal.

Stanford's offense is much improved and will score some points, but any team that gives up 45 points to UCLA is not going to be able to keep up with Oregon.

Oregon 52 Stanford 21

7. Oregon @ Stanford - Total Over 59.5 (-110) - 1.1 Units

See the above analysis.  We only need Stanford to score 17 points or so to clear this number.  This bet also has the added benefit of being somewhat of a hedge in that the probability of Oregon failing to cover AND the game going under 59.5 is fairly low while the probability of Oregon covering 16.5 AND the game going over is significant.

Numbers I'm Waiting On

1. Iowa at Wisconsin (Wisconsin -6.5) - The number is starting to drop after sitting at -7.5 all week.  It's at 7 now and likely to go down after Wisconsin allowed 31 to the Citadel last week.  It doesn't matter, though, as Iowa lost to god-awful Iowa State last weekend.

2. Michigan State @ Notre Dame (Michigan State -10) - Regardless of whether the game drops to -10 today, I'm going to wait until kickoff to bet it.  This game opened at -14 and has been steadily dropping all week.  I know Notre Dame is going to win a game eventually and stop getting blown out, but this isn't the week.  I liked this game at MSU -13, but didn't see any reason to bet it if the line will continue downward.  It currently sits at MSU -10.5.

3. Illinois @ Indiana (Illinois -2.5) - This number was available earlier in the week but I was not ready to bet it.  Hopefully I'll be able to get it again.

Season to Date Record (2007.09.18)

2007 NFL Regular Season

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	5-5	11.05	10.45	(0.600)	(5.42%)
Totals	1-2	3.30	2.10	(1.200)	(36.36%)
Teasers	1-0	1.00	2.80	1.800	180.00%
Parlays	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Props	2-0	2.20	4.20	2.00	90.91%
Total:	9-7	17.55	19.55	2.00	11.40%

2007 College Football

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	9-9	20.45	21.00	0.55	2.69%
Totals	1-1	1.85	1.05	(0.80)	(43.24%)
Teasers	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Parlays	0-0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00%
Total:	10-10	22.30	22.05	(0.25)	(1.12)%

2007 NFL Preseason

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
Sides	4-6	5.975	6.000	0.025	0.42%
Totals	1-0	0.550	1.050	0.500	90.91%
Teasers	0-0	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.00%
Parlays	1-0	0.500	1.785	1.285	257.00%
Total:	6-6	7.025	8.835	1.810	25.77%

Summary

	W/L	Units Risked	Units Won	Net	ROI
NFL	9-7	17.550	19.550	2.000	11.40%
College	10-10	22.300	22.050	(0.250)	(1.12)%
Preseason	6-6	7.025	8.835	1.810	25.77%
Total:	25-23	46.875	50.435	3.56	7.59%

NFL - Week 2

Not much time to explain the plays, but a big card today.

1. New Orleans Saints (-1 @ -110) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.1 Units)

I got this line a month ago when they had several games posted over the course of the season.  The line is up to Bucs +4 right now, so it looks like I got some good value here.

2. San Diego Chargers (+3.5 @ -110) @ New England Patriots (1.1 Units)

Same thing with this line (bet it a month ago), but it happens that this is the exact same line that is posted today.  I still think this is the right way to go on this game.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5 @ -110) @ Cleveland Browns (1.1 Units)

I've pretty much decided that I'm going to go against the Browns any time I can lay less than a touchdown as they may be the worst team in the league

4. Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans - Total Under 45.5 (1.1 Units)

Both games last year went well under this number and I can't imagine that the Titans are going to try to outscore the Colts, so look for a ton of rushing plays.  Even if the Colts do get out to a lead and force the Titans to pass, Vince Young and his 50% completion rate shouldn't really terrify anyone.

5. Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears (-12 @ -110) (1.1 Units)

I kind of liked the Over 34.5 in this game, but I think the Bears covering 12 is more likely.  I just didn't want to be in a position where I need the Chiefs to score a touchdown against the Bears defense to get over 34.

6. San Francisco 49ers (-0.5 @ -110) vs New York Giants (1.1 Units)

This is an imaginary matchup where a line has been posted.  Much like fantasy football, i need the niners (@ Rams) to outscore the Giants (vs. Packers).  Word is that Eli will try to play, but I don't think he's going to have a great deal of success against a good young Packers defense.  If he can't go, then they will be rolling with The Battleship Lorenzen and Derrick Ward leading the offensive charge.  I like this bet.

7. Chicago Bears (-0.5 @ -110) vs Philadelphia Eagles (1.1 Units)

Just like the last bet, Philly is playing a decent defense (Washington) on monday night while the Bears are at home against the terrible Chiefs.

8. San Francisco 49ers (+3 @ +100) @ St. Louis Rams (1 Unit)

I don't necessarily like to predict a decent team like the Rams opening up 0-2 at home, but the loss of Orlando Pace is going to seriously stunt their offense while Jim Haslett's defense is going to have a tough time with Frank Gore.

College Football - Week 3

1. Southern California (-10 @ -110) @ Nebraska (1.1 Units)

Pete Carroll and USC did not play last week and only beat Idaho 38-10 in their season opener in Los Angeles.  You've been hearing much the same thing this week about USC as you heard about LSU last week prior to the Virginia Tech game.  They didn't look very impressive in week one, they played it close to the vest on offense, etc.

Well, while they had the week off, Oklahoma ran over Miami 51-13 and LSU destroyed Virginia Tech in all phases of the game 48-7.  So, these kids sat at home watching the other two teams in the Top 3 and then they got to hear all week how OU and LSU deserved to be 1 & 2 (or at least how LSU deserved to be ranked #1).  Then, add in the fact that Pete Carroll has quietly taken all of the bad mouthing of his program and his conference over the summer from Les Miles and other SEC fans who don't understand that the PAC-10 is every bit as good as the SEC this year.

I don't care how nice of a guy Pete Carroll is, this is a proud program with proud alumni and an extremely good team.  As if they needed motivation to go on the road and play the #14 team, but they got a healthy dose of it anyway.  Remember that this is basically the same team that went to Arkansas last year and won 50-13 and also beat Nebraska at home 28-14.  Carroll has also gone on the road out of conference in other seasons and won impressively at Auburn and at Virginia Tech.

2. Mississippi State @ Auburn (-13 @ -110) (1.1 Units); MSU Team Total Under 14.5 (-130) (1.3 Units)

Yeah, the Auburn offense is probably every bit as bad as they've looked over the past couple of weeks, but their defense is absolutely championship caliber.  If MSU gave the ball away 6 times a couple of weeks ago against LSU, you can book at least two turnovers this weekend.  If one of those gets returned for a TD or sets up a TD, then the offense only realistically has to come up with 10 more points against a decent (but certainly not as good as South Florida's) MSU defense to cover this.  I don't see how MSU scores two touchdowns and a field goal in this game.

3. BYU (-6.5 @ -110) @ Tulsa

BYU went on the road and played #13 UCLA very close before UCLA finally put them away late 27-17.  Included in that score was a defensive TD for UCLA and the game sealing TD with 1:12 remaining, so the score was a lot closer than it would appear.  BYU also put up 435 yards on one of the tougher defenses in the country while Tulsa went into halftime of their only game this season down 3 points to Louisiana-Monroe.  Here's hoping BYU duplicates last season's 49-24 win.  Not to be outdone, Oklahoma comes to Tulsa next week, so don't be surprised if the Golden Hurricanes are looking ahead.

4. Ohio @ Virginia Tech (-20.5 @ -110)

I think there is great value to this Virginia Tech team that won a close opener against East Carolina and then played roadkill in Tiger Stadium last weekend.  They are a very good team that simply isn't in the same class as LSU, and I think that fact is reflected in this line.  There's no reason for VaTech to be 27 point home favorites against ECU in Week 1 and only 20.5 favorites against an Ohio team that is worse.  Also helping the cause is freshman Tyrod Taylor being named the starter this week over interception machine Sean Glennon.  Taylor showed some spunk by leading the Hokies' only touchdown drive against LSU.

Leans:

Louisville (-6 @ -105) @ Kentucky - I'll play it if it comes down to Louisville -5.5, which appears likely since they are begging people to lay 6 points with the -105.

Middle Tennessee @ LSU - 1st Half Total Under 32 (-110).  The game total is 58.5 and won't budge.  I would have played the game total at anything under 63, so this appears to be just about the only place to get any value in this game.

Boston College @ Georgia Tech (-6.5 @ -110) - I just don't buy into the Eagles being able to go down to Atlanta and win the game against a stout defense and an improved offense.

Thursday Night Entertainment Plays

Of course I need to have a little action on the games tonight if I'm going to be at a bar with the games on.  So, here's a half-unit each to entertainment:

1. West Virginia @ Maryland - Total Under 61 (-110)

2. TCU (-8 @ -110) @ Air Force

Oh No! They're Hand-Dance Fighting!

Someone shared this with me earlier today and I had to pass it on (after watching it about 10 times).......YouTube has to be one of the best inventions on Al Gore's Inter-web.

Season to Date Record (2007.09.11)

2007 NFL Regular Season
Sides: 4-1 (5.65 ==> 8.45 ==> +2.800 Units)
Totals: 0-2 (2.20 ==> 0.00 ==> -2.200 Units)
Parlays: 0-0
Teasers: 1-0 (1.000 ==> 2.800 ==> +1.800 Units)

2007 College Football
Sides: 7-6 (15.500 ==> 16.800 ==> +1.300 Units)
Totals: 0-0
Parlays: 0-0
Teasers: 0-0

2007 NFL Preseason
Sides: 4-6 (5.975 ==> 6.000 ==> +0.025 Units)
Totals: 1-0 (0.55 ==> 1.05 ==> +0.50 Units)
Parlays: 1-0 (0.50 ==> 1.785 ==> +1.285 Units)
Teasers: 0-0

Totals
31.375 Units Wagered
36.885 Units Paid Out
-------------------------------

5.51 Units Won (17.56% ROI)

Keeping Up With the Future

I made several futures bets before the season started on a variety of propositions from how many touchdowns Reggie Bush will score as opposed to Ronnie Brown to how many games the Wisconsin Badgers will win this season.  Let's see how we're doing at the end of Week 2 of College and Week 1 of the NFL

1. Wisconsin Badgers Over 9.5 Wins (+100) - With Michigan looking like a second tier team here in the first two weeks of the season, it sure looks like the Badgers have 10 wins well within their sights.  I have the utmost confidence in Wisky's ability to take care of Michigan at home, leaving only @ Penn State and @ Ohio State as games where they may not be the favorite.  I put the chances of the Badgers losing three games this season at roughly 15%, mainly because they are the superior team in all three of the above mentioned games.

2. Oregon Ducks Over 7 Wins (-110) - How good does this bet look after they went into Ann Arbor and shellacked Michigan?  I know beating Michigan is increasingly something you can't really brag about, but we're 1/4 of the way to our total after two weeks.  If the Ducks don't suffer a let down this week against Fresno State at home, I'll feel very confident about this bet. 

3. Virginia Tech Under 10 Wins (-125) - The game against LSU was one of the VaTech games I had penciled in for a loss.  But, I am feeling a little shaky on this one simply because it doesn't appear that the ACC is as strong as I thought it would be.  I still have a nice shot at this one with the Hokies having to travel to Clemson and to Georgia Tech for conference games, but I don't think we can expect much out of Florida State or Miami at this point.  If Va Tech wins either the Clemson or Georgia Tech game, we may be rooting for a push.

4. Detroit Lions Over 6 Wins (-140) - They won one of the games they need to get to 6. 

5. San Francisco 49ers Over 8 Wins (+110) - They play tonight.  Taking care of winnable games is what they have to do to get to 8 wins.  Arizona is a winnable game.

6. Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs (+120) - Of course, beating last year's division champion to open the season will only help in this quest.

7. Touchdowns Scored - Reggie Bush (-2 @ -150) vs Ronnie Brown- Neither scored this weekend

8. Touchdown Passes - Jay Cutler (-2.5 @ -110) vs Chad Pennington - Pennington leads 2-1 in this race, but Kellen Clemons threw about 10 passes yesterday.  This may end up as the best of both worlds as this bet has the stipulation that both players must start in Week 1 (which they did) but has no stipulations thereafter.  Pennington getting benched would just be fantastic.

Added Plays for the Weekend

I bet on Georgia again yesterday afternoon as the line made it down to UGA -3.5.  Of course, Georgia ended up losing the game outright.  I also added the following plays this morning for the first week of the NFL

1. Detroit (+3 @ -110) @ Oakland

2. Denver @ Buffalo (+4 @ -110)

3. Baltimore (+3 @ -120) @ Cincinnati (Monday night)

4. 4-team Teaser (+300)

a. Tampa Bay @ Seattle (+0.5) - Win

b. Tennessee (+13) @ Jacksonville - Win

c. Philadelphia (+3) @ Green Bay - Push

d. New York Giants @ Dallas (Pick)

College Football - Week 2

Most of these bets were placed on Sunday afternoon not long after the lines were released.  Especially in college football, where you have a much larger chance of finding a blatantly bad line, it pays to have a general idea of next week's games and the differences between the two teams.  In some cases, you don't necessarily bet a bad line as much as you get a much better number than if you waited until later in the week.  I've included the current number to make myself feel smart, although in the case of Georgia, it turns out I could have waited.

1. Navy @ Rutgers (-13.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Rutgers -16.5 (-110)]

Navy should have covered against Temple last week, but only won by 11 points despite outgaining the Owls by over 150 yards.  Their downfall was caused by penalties and turnovers.  At least twice while driving to put the game away, Navy had a 1st-and-goal from the Temple 20.  They also turned it over twice, with one coming deep in their own territory and leading directly to a Temple touchdown.  Needless to say, this does not bode well for the Midshipmen as they travel to New Jersey to face a Rutgers team that easily handled Buffalo last week 38-3.  Ray Rice and Mike Teel were hitting on all cylinders last Thursday night and could end up burying Navy if they get up early and force the middies to start passing the ball.  Even if Navy keeps it close early and is able to keep handing the ball off, a Rutgers defense that gave up only 14 points per game last season is still salty enough to keep Navy from scoring. 

Despite their strong showing last season, Rutgers is still one of the most undervalued teams in the country.  Rutgers pounded Navy on the road last year 34-0 as 2 point dogs.

Rutgers 37 Navy 14

2. Miami @ Oklahoma (-10 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Oklahoma -10.5 (-110)]

Oklahoma's redshirt freshman QB, Sam Bradford, and true freshman running back, DeMarco Murray, came out looking sharp by scoring 49 points in the first half of their season opener.  The only bad news is that they did it against the North Texas defense and now have to try it against the Miami Hurricanes' defense.

Miami, for their part, took care of business in convincing fashion by beating Marshall at home 31-3.  The bad news for Miami is that their quarterback was not asked to do anything but hand the ball off and let the defense play.  Unfortunately, that will not be enough for the 'canes this weekend in Norman.

Oklahoma had nearly double the offensive yardage of Miami (668-337) while allowing just two more yards on defense (247-245).  Miami relied on 251 yards rushing against Marshall while Oklahoma gave up just 64 against North Texas.  In other words, the Hurricanes are going to have to get more than 86 passing yards out of Kirby Freeman if they want to win on the road because the Sooners have just as good of a defense as Miami and a slightly better running game.

I think the Under 43 in this game is a decent play as Bob Stoops is likely to use a heavy dose of the running game and let his defense and the crowd take care of the rest.

Oklahoma 28 Miami 14

3. South Carolina @ Georgia (-6 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [ Currently Georgia -4.5 (-110)]

Whoops!  After watching Georgia dismantle Oklahoma State while South Carolina struggled against UL-Lafayette, I was pleased to see the line for this game under a touchdown.  Then it started moving down and sits at UGA -4.5 (-110).  If it hits the magic number of -4, I may consider adding action.  If it somehow gets down to -3, then it would be a must bet.

Two points in favor of South Carolina is that starting quarterback Blake Mitchell was suspended for the opener against the Cajuns and it is quite possible that the Gamecocks were looking past ULL to this game.  After all, USC hasn't beaten Mark Richt and hasn't beaten Georgia since 2001.  They thought they were close last season and then went to Athens and got shut-out 18-0.  On top of that, Steve Spurrier has been making comments like, "I may have overstated our team" and "We played like a bunch of average Joes".  I think Darth Visor may have his team mentally prepared to play this weekend in a BIG home game.

However, a point against South Carolina is that Blake Mitchell does not play defense and the Gamecock defense allowed 370 total yards to a mediocre Sun Belt team.  Even though USC won 28-14, ULL had the ball twice inside the Gamecock 5-yard line and failed to come away with any points.  This has to be a huge concern as Matthew Stafford and the rest of the Georgia offense looked like they were in midseason form against a decent Oklahoma State team.

Spurrier has his work cut out for him getting his quarterback ready to play the first game of the season on the road in Athens.

Georgia 31 South Carolina 21

4. West Virginia (-23.5 @ -110) @ Marshall - 2.2 Units [Currently West Virginia -24 (-110)]

I broke with my tradition from last season of laying the points on West Virginia whenever possible.  Of course, they covered the 23.5 against a decently good Western Michigan team.  This week, they travel to play a Marshall team that turned it over 4 times and managed only 3 points against a stout Miami defense.  You can look for those numbers to improve against the less than impressive Mountaineer defense.  But, if you give up over 200 yards rushing to Miami, then you're in for a long afternoon against Pat White, Steve Slaton and Noel Devine. 

Also, Rich Rodriguez is not ashamed to run up the score to make his team look good in the polls (and cover for the alumni!)

West Virginia 55 Marshall 17

5. Notre Dame @ Penn State (-16.5 @ -110) - 1.1 Unit [Currently Penn State -17.5 (-110)]

This line opened at 14.5 and I was hoping that the Notre Dame homers would bet it down to 14.  No such luck, however, as the line immediately took off in the opposite direction.  I feel somewhat fortunate to have gotten in under 17 points.

Yeah, Penn State doesn't quite have the same killer defense that Georgia Tech brought into South Bend last weekend, but it is still very very solid.  And, they have a far superior offense.  Good luck, Notre Dame!

Penn State 48 Notre Dame 10

NFL - Week 1

I could not be happier that the NFL season is finally upon us.  Spending the entire Sunday at the sports bar, playing fantasy football and wagering on the most popular professional sport in America.

Before I get my picks down, there are a couple of guidelines I follow when looking for early season bets:

a. Try to avoid laying points on road favorites against mediocre teams.

b. Unders hit far more often early in the season than they do later in the season

Now, on to the picks:

1. New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts - Total Under 50 (-110) - 1.1 Units

Here's my seemingly crazy play of the week that goes against what the entire betting public thinks will happen. 

The first reason for this play is that it usually takes offenses a couple of weeks to get up to the speed and timing with which the defenses open the season.  It makes sense because while executing offensive plays takes precision and timing, it does not require the level of coordination to play defense. 

The second reason goes to what I anticipate to be the game plan from New Orleans' perspective.  While the Saints certainly have the offensive ability to get into a shootout with the Colts, I'm sure they'd rather not have the game come to that (duh!).  It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the way to avoid a high scoring game is to keep Peyton Manning off the field and the way to accomplish that is to keep your offense on the field by giving the ball to Deuce McAllister early and often. 

Defensively, the Colts are very fast and run the traditional Tampa Bay Cover 2 defense.  This defense almost never blitzes and relies on the quick, undersized defensive linemen (Dwight Freeney) to disrupt the other team's offensive flow.  During the season when Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl, they only lost four games all season, but they lost both times they played the Saints.  In both of those games, Jim Haslett (of all people) seemed to have figured out how to defeat a great cover 2 defense......run the ball straight at them with a big running back.  Of course, that running back in both of those games was Deuce McAllister.  Fortunately, the Colts are not a great Cover-2 defense, but rather are merely average.  One possibly important factor in this gameplan is that DT Booger McFarland is out for the season, removing one of Indianapolis' best run defenders and a big presence in the middle of the line.

Finally tying this together is Sean Payton's experience in the NFC Championship game last season.  The Saints went to Chicago and played a great Cover-2 defense.  Several times during the offseason, Coach Payton referred to his flawed game plan which only had McAllister run the ball 9 times in poor field conditions and how he wished he had run the ball more. 

Hopefully, Coach Payton has this in mind.  My only regret here is that I didn't wait longer to place this bet as the line has climbed to O/U 53.  Also, parlaying the Saints +6 and Under 53 is probably a very good bet as it has to be improbable that this game goes under without the Saints covering.  The parlay also has the added benefit of increasing your reward by paying 2.6:1, thereby only requiring that you hit it 28% of the time.

2. Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans (-3 @ -115) - 1.15 Units

I'm not exactly sure how much stock to put into preseason performances, but if the last four weeks are any indication, the Texans should easily cover this 3 points.  Kansas City never scored more than 12 points in any game while the Texans never scored less than 19. 

I expect the Texans' run defense to be much improved this year with the addition of first round pick Amobi Okoye at nose tackle.  Okoye should take up the space in the middle and keep blockers off of DeMeco Ryans and allow Mario Williams to see more one-on-one blockers on the left side of the line.  Adding in their first round pick from 2002, CB Dunta Robinson, the Texans have the foundation for a solid offense.

On the other side of the ball, everyone knows that Matt Schaub was brought in to be the new Quarterback.  Of course, they will likely have some similar problems as before as they really didn't do much to address their turnstile-like offensive line.  At any rate, Schaub and Ahman Green should present some improvement over their 19.1 ppg average from a year ago.

In the meantime, the Chiefs look like they're ready to make it a go with Damon Huard and Larry Johnson.  It should be noted that Johnson did not play during any of the preseason games.  However, after watching the Chiefs starters on both offense and defense against the Saints in the third preseason game, I don't think adding Johnson and Huard (who also did not play in that game) will help all that much.  Their defense gave up yards in bunches and their offensive line was not effective in blocking the Saints pass rush.

Whenever I see all of these factors, it is natural to bet the home team when only being asked to lay 3 points.

3. Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders - Total Under 39.5 - 1.1 Units

Here's a play right out of the early season playbook.  I have to believe that the reason this number is available is the considerable publicity the Lions have gotten during the offseason after adding Tatum Bell and Calvin Johnson to an already improving offense.  However, what most people seem to have forgotten is that, in addition to their awful offense, the Raiders actually have one of the best defenses in the league.  In fact, the Raiders only played over 39.5 points in 2 of 16 games last season. 

Between the combination of new players at key positions on both teams' offenses and the Raiders actually playing stiff defense, I really like this play.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5 @ -110) @ Cleveland Browns - 1.1 Units

And after listing my two guidelines, I go and break one.  The exception here is that the Browns will consider this season a success if they rise to the level of mediocrity.  They are terrible and Charlie Frye (not Brady Quinn) will be starting this week.  Add in the motivation of new Steelers' coach Mike Tomlin to win his first game and to beat a divisonal rival convincingly and I think this is a very solid bet.

Season to Date Record (2007.09.04)

2007 NFL Preseason
Sides: 4-6 (5.975 ==> 6.000 ==> +0.025 Units)
Totals: 1-0 (0.55 ==> 1.05 ==> +0.50 Units)
Parlays: 1-0 (0.50 ==> 1.785 ==> +1.285 Units)
Teasers: 0-0

2007 NFL Regular Season
Sides: 0-0
Totals: 0-0
Parlays: 0-0
Teasers: 0-0

2007 College Football
Sides: 3-4 (7.800 ==> 6.300 ==> -1.500 Units)
Totals: 0-0
Parlays: 0-0
Teasers: 0-0

Totals
14.825 Units Wagered
15.135 Units Paid Out
-------------------------------

0.31 Units Won (2.1% ROI) ..... I should be investing in T-Bills right about now

You don't have to win every one (a.k.a. Chasing Losses)

So I ended the first weekend of college football 3-4 and down 1.5 Units.  Going into Labor Day, I was 2-2 on my posted plays and down the cost of the vig (0.2 Units).  I could have left well-enough alone, since I did not have strong opinions on either game yesterday.  But, then I of course decided that if I was going to watch 6-7 hours of football that I needed a little action on the games. 

This, in and of itself, is not too terrible since I'm not giving up much expectation by randomly choosing a side.  Theoretically, blindly betting either side of the point spread should be even money since the spread is intended to divide the public's opinion 50/50 as to the outcome of the game.  Of course, this assumes that the market is efficient and all available information is accounted for in the current spread.  So, I decided to lay the points in Texas Tech and came up with a win to put me in front 0.8 Units for the weekend.

After that game was over, I checked the line on the FSU/Clemson game and it had come down to FSU -3 (-115) after being at FSU -3.5 for most of the week.  Since I had just won and could only end up being 0.1 Units worse off than when I started the day, I played FSU -3 and laid 1.15 Units to win 1.  Again, this is not so terrible.

Then, Clemson is up 24-3 at halftime, with the only Florida State points coming on a field goal after blocked punt.  FSU had one first down (on the first play of the game) in the first half and had absolutely no answer for Clemson's running game.  It was at this point that I had the bright idea to take the Clemson moneyline for the second half at +100 and lay 1.15 Units on that bet so that I could come out even for the game. 

This is truly atrocious as I have taken even money and created a huge middle where I can lose both bets and a relatively small likelihood that I win one and lose one.  In other words, with the 24-3 halftime score, I essentially have my first bet (FSU -3) converted into FSU -26 for the second half.  I then worsen my situation by creating the circumstance where Florida State outscores Clemson by anything from 1 point to 25 points in the second half and I lose both bets.  That's the sign of a disciplined bettor right there. </sarcasm>

It is simply inexcusable to study the lines all week and carefully consider what wagers to make and then wipe everything out with impulse wagers at halftime of the last game of the week.  It is a tough lesson, but one that I'm better off learning now, that's for sure.

Just to show what this does to the bottom line.  If I had not wagered at all yesterday, my net for the weekend would have been -0.3 Units and my ROI overall would have been 17%.  Had I stopped after the Texas Tech game, my net would have been 0.8 Units and my ROI would have been 21%. 

See the next post to see me starting over at square one.

OK, Just one more

Florida State (-3 @ -115 ) @ Clemson

I just think Florida State has the better team and the better coaching staff.  Only 12 starters return for the Clemson team that beat FSU 27-20 last season.

The line finally came off FSU -3.5, so I decided to play it.

Labor Day Plays

America's day to stay home and gamble on football!

Since I'm behind for the weekend (thanks Mack Brown!), I've decided to pour some money into the Texas Tech-SMU matchup. Trying to "get even" on Monday is typically not where you want to be, but I really like a number of plays in this game:

Texas Tech -8 vs SMU 2 units

I also have Tech at -9.5 for 1 unit so I was thrilled to see that the line had dropped for me. Here's a factoid for you: Tech is 11-o vs SMU since '89 winning every game by double digits (avg margin of victory is 27 ppg).

Texas Tech Team Total over 34.5 1 unit

Tech put up 35 against SMU with an inexperienced QB last year. With Graham Harrell back and an experienced group of WRs, I don't see them missing a beat this year against a very poor SMU defense.

Other plays today:

FSU -3 vs Clemson 1 unit

How big of a hire was Jimbo Fisher? We'll see tonight as Drew Weatherford leads the Seminoles into Clemson. I like the offseason coaching changes for the 'Noles and look for improved play at QB which will be the difference.

Parlay of the day (aka Lyle's lottery selection):

Texas Tech -6.5, Texas Tech/SMU over 60, FSU -0.5 $5 to win $21.59

College Football 2007
Sides 4-3-1 (-0.5 Units)
Totals 0-0-0
Parlays 0-0-0

Added Play

Batting .500 for the weekend thus far.  Navy let the game get away from them with turnovers and penalties.  If they don't shoot themselves in the foot 3-4 times, that was an easy cover.  On the other hand, i have NO idea what happened with Texas.  The #4 team in the country beats a mediocre sun belt team by 8 points?  If Michigan hadn't honked it yesterday Texas might have fallen a few spots in the polls for that performance.

Anyhow, I do have one more play for Monday:

Texas Tech (-8.5 @ -110) @ SMU - 1 Unit

The recent games in this series have all been Texas Tech double digit wins.  Let's hope Dan Leach has one more in him.